Supported by greater growth in the US economy, better monetary conditions and a moderate boost in government spending, growth should accelerate gradually until it reaches a rate of 3.6% in 2019.
The mission of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recognizes the macroeconomic stability that has been achieved, but warns of a need to approve a fiscal reform that allows the tax burden to be increased to at least 15% of GDP, and allocate that additional income to public investment, especially in social development, particularly pre-primary education, preventive health care and greater pension coverage.
The Bank of Guatemala has kept the lead monetary policy rate at 3%, arguing that high levels of uncertainty still persist in the external economic environment.
From the report "Recent macroeconomic performance and prospects," by the Bank of Guatemala :
Global economic growth projections for 2017 and 2018 show that the recovery in economic activity will probably continue, albeit in an environment where high levels of uncertainty and downside risks prevail.Forecasts for international oil prices remain on the upside.
Recognition is given to the efforts made in the fight against corruption and the resilience of the economy in the face of the political crisis in 2015, but it was noted that there are still vulnerabilities in the financial system.
From the report Article IV by the International Monetary Fund:
This note summarizes the findings and preliminary recommendations of the mission that visited Guatemala from May 18 to May 31 for the Article IV Consultation 2016. The mission wishes to thank the Guatemalan authorities for their outstanding cooperation and frank dialogue.
The decision was made in response to economic activity, family remittances and credit to the private sector showing dynamism, and the fact that inflation remains within the target.
From a statement issued by the Bank of Guatemala:
The Monetary Board (MB), based on a comprehensive analysis of the external and internal situation, after reviewing the Inflation Risks Balance, decided to keep the level of the leading monetary policy interest rate at 3%.
Increased borrowing costs, a disincentive to foreign investment and distrust of economic performance, are part of the expected scenario if public debt growth is not controlled.
Prensalibre.com reports that "... The draft budget for 2015 presented by the Ministry of Finance, amounting to $9.250 million (Q71 thousand 840.8 million), contemplates taking on new debt of about $2 billion (Q15 billion), of which $1.6 billion (Q12 thousand 334 million) came from bonds and loans. "
Considering the main internal and external variables stable, the Bank of Guatemala is keeping the leading policy rate, a major reference for interest rates in the country, unchanged.
From a statement issued by the Bank of Guatemala:
The Monetary Board, based on a comprehensive analysis of the external and internal situation, after having been made aware of the Balance Inflation Risks, has decided to keep the rate of the main monetary policy interest at 4.50% .
A joint report by the Central Bank of Guatemala confirms the outlook for economic growth of between 3.3% and 3.9% for 2014.
From a summary of a report by the Banguat entitled "Economic Situation and Prospects of the country":
The world economy is recovering and the pace of growth has rebounded, particularly in advanced economies, emerging economies have weakened but are still explaining the dynamism on global growth; although downside risks are still present.
The Monetary Board, at its meeting on June 25, decided to lower the monetary policy leader rate from 4.75% to 4.50%
Among the arguments given by the authorities of the Central Bank of Guatemala were "... the behavior of the price of raw materials such as corn and wheat products which are holding a downward trend ... and the rising oil price."
On the domestic side the monetary authority said that "...
During 2013 the Guatemalan economy continued to recover and show dynamism in most sectors in the country.
The Monetary Authority of Guatemala notes that in 2013 the country had a satisfactory rate of economic activity consistent with the recovery that has been seen in the world economy.
The entity predicts a robust 2014 with a strengthening of economic activity domestically, mainly driven by an acceleration in world trade, in which Guatemala is immersed.
The Central Bank has presented its analysis of the recent performance of the economy and its arguments for maintaining the leading rate at 5%.
From a report by the Banguat:
"The performance of economic activity remains consistent with the annual estimates of GDP growth (3.2% -3.6%), which is reflected in the dynamism of some short-term indicators such as quarterly GDP, IMAE, means of payment, bank credit to the private sector, the volume of imports and exports and remittances. "
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) report sheds a positive light on the country's macroeconomic situation and the stability of its financial system.
A staff team from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) visited Guatemala during August 17-26, 2010 to conduct the fourth and final review of the Stand-By Arrangement approved in April 2009. The mission met with Minister of Finance Edgar Balsells; Central Bank Governor María Antonieta de Bonilla; Superintendent of Banks Edgar Barquín; other senior government officials, and representatives of the private sector.
The Government risks failing to comply with the current Stand-By Agreement with the International Monetary Fund, as its fiscal deficit would reach 3.9%.
However, Fernando Delgado, IMF representative for Guatemala, stated that “if the Government provides strong reasons for increasing the deficit, the Fund could maintain the Stand-By Agreement”.
Meanwhile, the Guatemalan Congress is awaiting the opinions of the Monetary Board and the Public Finances Ministry to decide if they approve the issue of $563 million to $876 million.
The recent increase in the value of the Costa Rican colon versus the dollar is worrisome, not only because there are no clear reasons to explain it, but also because it would be hard to contain it without causing greater problems.
In the past weeks, and without apparent reason, the price of the U.S. dollar in Costa Rica dropped considerably.
Last week we surveyed some financial operators as to why these movements where occurring, the general answer being: “we don’t know”.
Generally speaking, the country risk for central american countries stays constant during the second quarter of 2008
The evaluation, done by the the most important risk rating companies, is based on the positive results reported by the treasuries of the governments, the efficient administration of public debt, and the positive macroeconomic stability of the region.
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