For Fitch, the delay in vaccination campaigns constitutes a latent risk of a prolonged pandemic, which would delay the recovery of the region's economies and would cause negative pressures on the risk ratings to be issued in the coming months.
Fitch Ratings issued a bulletin for Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean on May 25, in which it warned that given the deep economic contractions in the region and the moderate recovery outlook, there are threats of negative rating pressures.
The latest risk ratings for the issuance of long-term debt of Central American economies identify Panama as the most attractive country to invest in.
On March 8, Moody's decided to raise its long-term issuer rating in foreign currency from Baa2 to Baa1, arguing that the outlook remains more favorable in the medium term.
The governments of Costa Rica and Nicaragua will face greater challenges in obtaining financing in external markets, because of the lowering of their risk ratings by international agencies.
Arguing that Costa Rica reflects consistently large fiscal deficits, short-term financing needs because of a strong repayment schedule and budget financing constraints, Fitch Ratings reported on January 15 that the country's long-term foreign currency issuer default rating was downgraded from BB to B+.
Fitch Ratings has downgraded Brazilian construction firm from B- to CC, arguing that the revelations about bribes "have exacerbated its reputational risk".
From a press release by Fitch Ratings:
Fitch Ratings-Sao Paulo-17 January 2017: This is a correction of a release published Jan. 17, 2017. It corrects the rating for the USD800 million senior unsecured notes due 2023.
Moody's warns of the risks faced by banks in Central America in the context of a rising trend in interest rates and dollarization of their loan portfolios.
From a report by Moody's:
Mexico, September 14, 2016 -- Banks in Central America face rising asset risks as interest rates look set to rise in the region, pushing up debt service costs for borrowers, according to a report from Moody's Investors Service.
Fitch notes that the relatively favorable external environment will not be enough for Central American countries to improve their credit ratings, which could remain stable despite fiscal problems.
From the press release by Fitch Ratings:
Fitch Ratings-New York-22 October 2015: External tailwinds are unlikely to lead to a significant uplift in Central America's creditworthiness, says Fitch Ratings in a new special report.
Standard & Poor's has warned of the risk of default in the next two years and reduced the rating for the sovereign debt of Venezuela, the principal debtor of the Colon Free Zone.
From a statement issued by Standard & Poor's:
OVERVIEW
The Venezuelan government's failure to take timely corrective actions to address growing economic distortions has contributed to economic deterioration and shortages of foreign exchange.
Slow growth is projected in El Salvador, very good performance in Nicaragua, stability in Panama, more competition in Guatemala and moderate growth in Costa Rica.
From a report by Fitch Ratings entitled "2015 Perspectives: Central American Banks":
Costa Rica:
Fitch Ratings has revised the outlook for the sector from positive to stable, because the agency does not anticipate substantial improvements in respect to the previous year.
The most perverse thing about the credit risk rating system is that it has weakened (deliberately?) the indispensable analytical skills of investors.
The resignation of Standard & Poor's chief executive of following the agency’s downgrading of the U.S.’s credit rating, reveals the fragility of the whole risk rating system.
Rating agencies are in the pillory, especially after episodes like the mortgage crisis of 2008 - or before that- the shameful Enron episode. It is not helping that it was the president of S & P who was the fuse that went off when the system became overheated by the sacrosanct downgrading of the United States’ rating.
While in Europe ratings go down and in Latin American they go up, the opinion of the agencies is starting to be looked at with different eyes.
A decade ago debt issued by European countries benefited from mostly high grades and attractive ratings, which helped them maintain high prices and low yields.
This situation now appears to have reversed, and today it is the Latin American countries that rating agencies look upon favorably, while countries such as Portugal and Greece are seeing debt ratings fall to speculative levels.
Central American countries still need to improve their economic performance to reach investment grade ratings.
On its Quarterly Country Risk report for June 2010, the Central American Monetary Council (SECMCA), notes that Moody’s Investor Service improved the foreign currency risk ratings for Guatemala and Nicaragua. For Guatemala, the criteria for this improvement included a stable macroeconomic environment, backed by prudent fiscal and monetary policies, and for Nicaragua improvement in debt indicators and low fiscal deficits.
Fitch Ratings lowered the bank’s long term risk rating from “B(pan)” to “B-(pan)”; the outlook is now stable.
Transatlantico’s short term rating was affirmed at “B (pan)”.
A lower long term rating comes as a result of a lower quality asset portfolio, in addition to less income generating capacity, due to less productive assets. The “stable” outlook implies that the bank has high probability of maintaining its negative results over the next two years.
Fitch Ratings warned that although Central American sovereigns have resisted the global crisis pretty well so far, they now require fiscal consolidation in order to maintain their credit ratings.
Summary
Fitch‐rated Central American sovereigns have thus far withstood the destabilizing effects of the global economic and financial crisis, despite monetary and exchange rate policy challenges.
Fitch downgraded Mexico's Issuer Default Rating (IDR) from 'BBB+' to 'BBB' in foreign currency and from 'A-' to 'BBB+' in domestic currency.
Both ratings have a 'Stable' outlook. Additionally, the country's ceiling was reduced to 'A-' from 'A'.
Fitch downgraded Mexico's ratings because the country's fiscal situation has gotten worse with the financial crisis and a reduction in Mexican oil production.