The government plan aimed to have a growth of 407% in planted area and double the crop yield.
However, the reality has ended up being well below expectations. The planted area reached only 650 hectares, a figure even lower than in the previous harvest, when 1.709 hectares were planted.
Of the 16 farmers who planted in 2011/12, only half did so this time. Many prefer not to talk about it, as they owe a million dollars to Alba-Caruna in loans.
A difference of 400 million quintals from the previous projections (1.9 million) and the final export figures (2.3 million) suggest grain smuggling from Honduras.
An article in Prensa.com.ni reports that, according to statistics from the Center for Export Procedures (Cetrex), the 2011-2012 coffee harvest was 2.3 million quintals, well above the 2.09 million of the previous harvest, and 400 million quintals above earlier projections of the harvest, which was of 1.900 million quintals.
Low rainfall and aging plantations are the main factors for the decline in production.
An article in Elfinancierocr.com quotes the executive director of the Coffee Institute of Costa Rica (Icafe), Ronald Peters, who said: "We come from a good harvest, we will have a smaller quantity because of climate issues which benefited areas like the Central Valley but hurt others such as area of Coto Brus.
In the last twenty years the sugar industry has been growing at an annual rate of 11%, contributing to 3% of gross domestic product.
According to statistics from the Bank of Guatemala, in 2011 sugar exports accounted for 6.2% of total exports from the country.
The 2011-2012 harvest was very favorable achieving record production of 54.3 million quintals and estimates for 2012-2013 are for 55 million quintals, said Armando Boesche, manager of the Sugar Association of Guatemala (Asazgua).
The company Beneficiadora de Occidente, dedicated to the production of coffee, has introduced a prepaid card to pay its coffee pickers.
The company, through an agreement signed with Banco Nacional de Costa Rica, is the first to incorporate this method of payment, which may be extended to other agricultural activities (pineapple and banana plantations).
The droughts effect on grain crops has made food prices more expensive around the world, and is affecting the economies of Central American countries.
According to an article in Americaeconomia.com there is an increasing threat of low crop yields in major U.S. agricultural states affected by drought and high temperatures recorded during the month of July.
The current harvest will not be in time to take advantage of peak consumption which occurs during Ramadan, which this year has been moved forward in the calendar.
An article in Elperiodico.com.gt reports that "Guatemala is the largest exporter of cardamom in the world and supplier to Middle Eastern countries, but this year it will not be able to take advantage of Ramadan, as India, the largest producer, has started its harvest last month. "
After 30 days without any rain, losses are expected which will require increased imports of grain in order to supply the needs of local consumption and agribusiness.
If the dry period is prolonged until August 25, as the national weather service is predicting, about seven thousand acres of rice will be lost, said Fredy Torres, representing producers of the grain. The representative estimated economic losses of nearly $7 million.
In the case of beans, the goal was to plant 110 thousand hectares, but 112,000 were planted. In corn, the number of hectares increased from 304,000 to 315,000.
From a press release from the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry:
Production expectations in both beans and corn, are excellent assured the Minister of Agriculture and Forestry, Ariel Bucardo, during a meeting of the Bean Council, involving producers, exporters and government officials.
The Brazilian coffee crop, which could amount to more than 50 million quintals of grain, could put prices back down again.
Faced with the prospect of a bumper crop of coffee in Brazil, Raul Amador Torres, a senior market analyst says, "The international price of coffee has improved a little and might be quoted at $190 per quintal, however, the trend is that it will go down again ... "
Salvadoran farmers are projecting a harvest of between 17 and 17.5 million quintals of corn.
The president of the Agricultural Suppliers Association (APA), Oscar Albanez, said they have the required factors for a very good harvest, "Winter in May was better than average. That was very good because it made the soil moist. On the other side, raw materials for producers have been stored up, both fertilizer and agrochemicals as well as seeds", he said according to Elsalvador.com.
Coffee growers are counting on the production of more than 100 million quintals of top quality grain this harvest.
"Specialty coffee harvests are getting bigger and bigger. In this period we will have a good number of bags to serve such markets. We believe that exports will rise more than 100 million quintals", said Asterio Reyes, president of Ihcafé (the Honduran Coffee Institute) to Laprensa.hn.
In the 2011-2012 harvest, completed this month, a "historical record" of 54,330,445 quintals of sugar was harvested.
"It's a record", proclaimed Armando Boesche, general manager of the Sugar Association of Guatemala (Asazgua).
The union leader attributed the good performance to weather conditions which "for the current crop were favorable".
"Of the total harvest this year, it is expected that 34,700,000 quintals will be exported, the remaining product is intended for domestic consumption", reported Prensalibre.com.
Between January and March 2012 $304 million worth was exported and producers are expecting a bumper crop this year.
In the 2010-2011 harvest, there was 44.5 million bushels. Up tp May 13 the figure was 54.1 million, according to figures from the Association of Sugar Producers of Guatemala.
"Influencing the harvest was the fact that there was better weather than last year, rains were normal, no major natural disasters were reported, there was also more sunlight, a situation that buoyed up the sugar harvest," said Marco Augusto Garcia Noriega, president of the Asazgua.