After registering a 7% year-on-year increase in July, in August the Confidence in Economic Activity Index in Guatemala showed a 6% variation.
According to the last report of the Banco de Guatemala, an inflationary rhythm of 4.51% is forecast for September and of 4.50% for October 2019. As to December 2019 and 2020, the Panel foresees an inflationary rhythm of 4.64% and 4.50%, in that order.
A joint report by the Central Bank of Guatemala confirms the outlook for economic growth of between 3.3% and 3.9% for 2014.
From a summary of a report by the Banguat entitled "Economic Situation and Prospects of the country":
The world economy is recovering and the pace of growth has rebounded, particularly in advanced economies, emerging economies have weakened but are still explaining the dynamism on global growth; although downside risks are still present.
The Bank of Guatemala has lowered the leading policy rate, the reference for interest rates in the domestic financial system, from 5% to 4.75%.
The Monetary Board decided to lower the leading policy rate by 0.25 percentage points based on the external and internal economy, seeing a recovery in global economic activity.
From a press release issued by the Bank of Guatemala:
The Foundation for the Development of Guatemala (FUNDESA) has issued its monthly report on key indicators of the Guatemalan economy.
Inflation
According to the Index of Consumer Prices, prepared by the National Statistics Institute, accumulated inflation during the month of June 2011 stood at 4.23%.
The rate of change (change in June 2011 compared with the same month in 2010) stood at 6.42%, higher than that observed in June 2010.
Fitch Ratings reported that the risks to regional banks during the current crisis are growing and represent a major challenge for 2009.
The combination of reduced credit expansion, fund restrictions and increasing loan provisions have limited the profits of most banks and it is expected for these factors to continue to pressure the results in the coming months.
Fitch Ratings reported that the risks to regional banks during the current crisis are growing and represent a major challenge for 2009.
The combination of reduced credit expansion, fund restrictions and increasing loan provisions have limited the profits of most banks and it is expected for these factors to continue to pressure the results in the coming months.
The Inflation Expectations Survey revealed a some optimism regarding the behavior of the cost of living for the month of September and the next few months.
Analysts, who are consulted on a monthly basis, forecasted that (for this month) there will be a rate of inflation (for a 12 month period) of 13.15%, while for October and November 2008 they calculate that it will be 13% and 12.27% respectively.
A group of private analysts who are consulting for the Bank of Guatemala are predicting that annual inflation will be 11.86 percent by year-end.
The believe inflation will remain in double digits (10.7 percent) in 2009 as a result of the high oil prices. In addition, food prices have risen more than 12 percent in recent months.
It's the first time that private analysts have forecast double-digit inflation, according to the June Survey of Inflationary Expectations.