The Costa Rican government is facing a complex scenario, since by not achieving consensus to access international loans, it will be forced to seek domestic funding sources, which would put pressure on the exchange rate and interest rates to rise.
The economic crisis that the country is going through due to the outbreak of covid-19 ended up sharpening the country's fiscal situation.
The effects of the pandemic and fiscal uncertainty are the factors that explain the rise in the price of the US currency in Costa Rica against the Colon, which on November 4 was quoted at 614.55 colons to the dollar.
According to the figures of the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR), between October 19 and November 4 the selling price of the dollar has shot up, rising from ₡605.24 to ₡614.55, which is equivalent to a 2% variation.
The doubts generated by the fiscal proposal with which the Costa Rican government plans to discuss a loan with the IMF, would be the main cause of the recent upward trend in the dollar's price, which as of September 29 was quoted at ₡604,52.
The figures of the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) report an upward trend in recent days, since between September 11 and 29 the price has risen from ₡595,41 to ₡604,33, which is equivalent to a 2% variation.
In the last 15 days, the price per dollar in the wholesale market has risen ₡16, which can be explained by economic uncertainty and people's preference for buying dollars.
According to data from the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR), a rising trend has been reported in recent weeks. Between March 11 and 26, the price has risen from ₡565.69 to ₡581.77, equivalent to a 3% variation.
During 2019, the price of the dollar in Costa Rica registered multiple fluctuations; however, for this 2020, such abrupt variations are not anticipated, since the Central Bank starts the year with reserves close to $9 billion.
Data from the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) show that between February 4 and November 28, 2019, the average dollar price in the Costa Rican market fluctuated considerably, ranging from ₡614.31 to ₡562.63.
With the aim of cushioning the fall in the price of the dollar, which between November 5 and 25 was reduced in ₡18,35, in just two days the Central Bank intervened buying more than $30 million.
Of the $41.5 million negotiated at Monex during the November 22 session, the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) purchased $36 million, and of the $30.7 million negotiated on November 25, the monetary authority acquired $27 million.
Because of the growing supply of dollars in the local market, which is explained in part by the income of $1.5 billion from the recent issue of Eurobonds, so far in November the price per dollar in the wholesale market has been reduced at ₡16,55.
Official figures from the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) report a downward trend in recent weeks, as between November 5 and 22 the price has dropped from ₡585,52 to ₡568,97, equivalent to a 3% variation. See full figures.
After the exchange rate closed on August 23 at ₡565,88 per dollar in the wholesale market MONEX, an upward trend has been reported since then, reaching ₡581,33 per dollar on September 5, which could be the result of a lower participation of the Central Bank in the exchange market.
Official figures from the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) report that between early February and mid-August of this year, there has been a fall of up to 48 colones per dollar, when reporting a drop in the average rate in the wholesale market Monex from ₡613,87 to ₡565,88.
In Costa Rica, it is expected that the downward trend that has been showing the exchange rate since February will intensify in the coming months, when the $3.580 million begins to enter as a result of the issuance of Eurobonds and loans granted by external entities.
According to data from the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR), between the beginning of February and July 30 of this year, there has been a fall of up to 44 colones per dollar, reporting a drop in the average rate in the wholesale market Monex from ¢613.87 to ¢570.13.
In Costa Rica, exporters and businessmen of the tourism sector are concerned about the decreasing trend that in recent months has reported the exchange rate, which on July 18 was quoted at ¢575.7 per dollar.
Official figures report that between early February and mid-July of this year, there has been a fall of up to 38 colones per dollar, as the average rate in the Monex wholesale market fell from ¢613.87 to ¢575.69.
In a competitive scenario for lower costs and higher productivity, devaluation against the Lempira Dollar in Honduras and the Cordoba Dollar in Nicaragua is a factor that could help these economies stay competitive.
In the last five years, the exchange rate in Honduras increased by 17%, from 21.06 Lempiras per U.S. dollar in June 2014 to 24.67 in the same month in 2019.
A greater supply of dollars, high local interest rates and a decrease in imports of durable goods explain the decreasing trend of the exchange rate in Costa Rica, which on June 18 reached the lowest level of the year.
In 2018, the dollar price against the Colon was on an upward trend, however, between February 6 and mid-June of this year, there has been a fall of up to 28 colones per dollar. [GRAFICA caption="Click to interact with graph"]
In Costa Rica, the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against the Colon began to rise in April, but from the 3rd to date, a fall of up to 12 colones per dollar has been reported.
After the average exchange rate against the dollar in the Monex wholesale market increased from ¢599.2 to ¢607.9 between March 29 and April 3, there have been continuous declines in the last few days, since as of this month's 17th it decreased to ¢595.8, one of the lowest levels of the year.
The economic environment in 2018 was defined by a context of fiscal uncertainty, economic slowdown and greater financial volatility, together with a difficult external environment.
Regarding the fiscal uncertainty occupying a large part of last year's economic agenda, explains the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) which was originated, firstly, in the electoral process that lasted until April, and later in the difficulties faced to achieve an agreement that would help restore the sustainability of public finances in the medium term.
Following the Constitutional Chamber's judgment on the tax reform, the exchange rate in Costa Rica temporarily stopped rising, but it is expected to restart upward trend in the coming months.
According to figures from the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR), from mid-August to the first week of November, the Colon depreciated rapidly. However, after Fourth Chamber prepared the tax reform in Congress a few days ago, the dollar's price against the local currency stopped rising.