For Fitch, the delay in vaccination campaigns constitutes a latent risk of a prolonged pandemic, which would delay the recovery of the region's economies and would cause negative pressures on the risk ratings to be issued in the coming months.
Fitch Ratings issued a bulletin for Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean on May 25, in which it warned that given the deep economic contractions in the region and the moderate recovery outlook, there are threats of negative rating pressures.
Fitch Ratings agreed to change the perspective of the region's banks from stable to negative, arguing that the current health crisis will affect financial institutions in all countries.
Considering the measures that countries have adopted in the last 15 days in economic matters, following the spread of covid-19, Fitch expects that there will be a decrease in the issuance of loans.
Except for Nicaragua, which projects a decline in revenues, Fitch Ratings estimates that by year-end the region's insurance markets will have grown from 3% to 8%.
According to the report Perspectives of Insurance Industry in Central America, prepared by the rating agency Fitch Ratings, El Salvador will be the market that in 2019 will register more dynamism in the region, reporting an 8% increase over revenues reported in 2018.
The governments of Costa Rica and Nicaragua will face greater challenges in obtaining financing in external markets, because of the lowering of their risk ratings by international agencies.
Arguing that Costa Rica reflects consistently large fiscal deficits, short-term financing needs because of a strong repayment schedule and budget financing constraints, Fitch Ratings reported on January 15 that the country's long-term foreign currency issuer default rating was downgraded from BB to B+.
Fitch Ratings forecasts that the insurance sector in Central America will close 2018 with a year-on-year increase of almost 6% and expects that in 2019 the business will reach a very similar growth rate.
The projected increase for 2018 and 2019 would be based on the behavior of the Panama, Costa Rica and Guatemala markets, however, the increases of 5.8% and 6.1% forecast for 2018 and 2019, respectively, would represent a slowdown regarding the 8.2% growth registered in 2017.
Slow growth is projected in El Salvador, very good performance in Nicaragua, stability in Panama, more competition in Guatemala and moderate growth in Costa Rica.
From a report by Fitch Ratings entitled "2015 Perspectives: Central American Banks":
Costa Rica:
Fitch Ratings has revised the outlook for the sector from positive to stable, because the agency does not anticipate substantial improvements in respect to the previous year.
Fitch Ratings expects moderate growth in premiums in Costa Rica, increased interest in personal insurance in Guatemala, and stable performance in Nicaragua and Honduras.
From the report "Outlook 2015: Central American Insurance Sector":
Costa Rica:
Moderate growth in premiums
Since the Costa Rican insurance industry opened up to private competition in 2008, the market has experienced rapid and consistent growth in premiums.
On December 4th Fitch Ratings will hold a conference entitled 'Challenges and Opportunities for Structured Finance and Infrastructure in Central America and the Caribbean.'
Securitization of Assets, an Option for Capital Markets in the Region, is one of the subjects to be discussed in the event's agenda. Participants will include Marielena Garcia, SVP of Investment Banking at MMG Bank Corp, Alberto Gutierrez, president of Titularizadora Colombiana, John Rauschkolb, General Manager La Hipotecaria and Diego Torres, vice general manager of BHD Valores Puesto de Bolsa.
Fitch Ratings discussed Central American insurance sector projections for 2011.
The slow recovery of most Central American economies after the effects of the 2008 – 2009 recession is also reflected in the activity of the insurance industry. With an annual global growth of only 5% (in Dollar terms), the six countries which form Central America (El Salvador, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama) have not yet managed to regain the lost path of 2009.
Quarterly Report by the Executive Secretary of the Central American Monetary Council, June 2009.
General Situation
During the first months of the year, there has been a deterioration in some economic indicators like foreign investment, remittances and external trade. Based on this, the Executive Secretary estimates that the consequences of the international crisis were felt the most in the CA-RD region in the first third of the year, situation that could worsen further in the coming months, depending on what happens in the international stage.