Reducing costs and barriers to foreign trade in Central American economies is key for the region to overcome the economic recession caused by the outbreak of Covid-19.
A report prepared by the World Bank explains that boosting economic activity and employing a higher percentage of the labor force are objectives that can be achieved through reforms that strengthen the private sector and attract investment.
The next U.S. president is not yet known, but in the region it is expected that in an eventual new Trump administration, the focus will be on the recovery of the U.S. economy, while an eventual Biden administration would focus on countering corruption and illegal migration.
Two days after Election Day took place, the United States is experiencing an atmosphere of tension and uncertainty, since because the results are closed, neither candidate can yet be declared the winner.
After the unemployment rate in the United States fell from 15% to 8% between April and August, it became evident that at the beginning of the crisis the capacity of recovery that the North American country could develop was underestimated and it is expected that this behavior could boost the economic activity in Central America.
During the first half of 2020, when the first cases of covid-19 began to be reported in the region, forecasts noted that the recovery of economic activity would be excessively slow, due to a significant drop in consumption globally.
The World Bank projects that the Central American economy will contract by 3.6% this year, due to restrictions on movement, a decline in remittances and tourism, and a drop in agricultural prices.
The sudden and widespread impact of the coronavirus pandemic and the measures taken to contain it have caused a drastic contraction in the global economy, which, according to World Bank forecasts, will shrink by 5.2% this year, the bank reported on June 8.
"Growth remains susceptible to adverse shocks to global growth, economic and socio-political stress in Nicaragua, the continued weakness in consumer and business confidence, and uncertainty regarding the implementation of the fiscal reform.”
After the slowdown in growth between 2017 and early 2019, the economy has recovered since mid-2019, as a result of a rebound in services, agriculture and manufacturing, which produced an estimated 2.1% growth in 2019, reported the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The outlook for some economies in the region for 2019 is not the best: in Nicaragua GDP is expected to fall between 5% and 7%, while in Costa Rica the growth estimate at the end of the year was reduced from 3.2% to 2.2%.
The estimates of the Nicaraguan Foundation for Economic and Social Development (Funides), presented in its "Informe de Coyuntura - Julio 2019", indicate that by 2019 an economic contraction of between 5.4% and 6.8% will be reported in the country.
The low dynamism of the commercial activity and the high unemployment, are the main reasons behind the fall in the consumption in Costa Rica, and great changes are not expected in the short term.
In February 2019, the country's production, measured according to the Monthly Economic Activity Index, registered a 1.7% year on year variation, informed the Central Bank of Costa Rica.
Businessmen in Costa Rica ask the government to complete projects that promote the reactivation of the economy next year, where construction and agriculture are the highest priority activities.
In addition to the economic rebound, the Costa Rican Union of Chambers and Associations of Private Business Sector (UCCAEP) expects the country not to focus on single-issue discussions, as happened in 2018 with the fiscal plan.
Costa Rica's GDP would only grow 2.6% by the end of 2018, mainly because of the effect of the three-month strike by public officials, the Nicaraguan crisis, rising global interest rates and uncertainty over tax reform.
From the International Monetary Fund statement:
December 12th, 2018. An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team led by Ravi Balakrishnan visited San José from December 4 to 11 to discuss recent economic developments, the fiscal reform, and the overall macro and financial outlook. The mission held fruitful discussions with Central Bank Governor Rodrigo Cubero, Finance Minister Rocío Aguilar, members of the Legislative Assembly, other senior government officials, and representatives of the financial and private sectors. At the end of the visit, Mr. Balakrishnan issued the following statement:
The region is expected to conclude 2018 with a rise of just over 4% in the volume exported and just 3.6% in value, due to the fall in international prices of several agricultural products.
According to the International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean 2018, published by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), it is expected that this year Central America will export larger volumes at lower prices.
According to the Central Bank, Costa Rica's economy could grow 3.2% this year, less than was initially expected, and the fiscal deficit could reach 7.2% of GDP.
In its revision of the Macroeconomic Program 2018-2019, the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) foresees that this year's GDP growth will be 3.2%, below what was estimated in the Program presented at the beginning of the year, when the monetary authority projected growth of 3.6% at the end of the year.
Fitch Ratings has changed the outlook from stable to negative, due to "diminished flexibility to finance its rising budget deficits and public debt burden, as well as persistent institutional gridlock preventing progress on reforms to correct the fiscal imbalance."
EDITORIAL
Costa Rica is running out of time.The decision taken by Fitch Ratings to reduce from the outlook for the sovereign debt rating from stable to negative reflects a serious problem that the country faces and shows us that, in the not very long term, the rating agency could lower this rating, currently in the BB category.
The Central Bank has reduced its economic growth forecast from 4.1% to 3.8% for 2017, mainly due to a slower rate of growth in service industries.
From the Macroeconomic Program Review 2017-2018:
The macroeconomic projections for the biennium 2017-2018 are based on an international context characterized by: (i) a greater rate of world growth; (Ii) orderly reaction of financial markets to increases in interest rates in the United States; (Iii) moderate inflation.
Forecasts are for lower economic growth this year, driven by a weakening of the terms of trade and more restrictive financial conditions, caused by the high fiscal deficit.
From a press release issued by the IMF:
I. Recent Developments
1. Both output and growth are at potential, while inflation has reemerged and is rising moderately.
Excess liquidity in the financial system, soaring loans in dollars, a rising fiscal deficit and a less favorable global environment will complicate the path in the rest of the year and in 2017.
The document"Macroeconomic Review Program 2016-2017"by the Central Bank of Costa Rica says that these four elements are the main factors that could adversely affect overall economic performance.