Fifteen months after the beginning of the health and economic crisis, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua are the economies in the region with the highest inflation rates, a behavior that was influenced by increases in fuel and transportation costs.
In the second quarter of 2020, a period in which the countries of the region were going through a severe economic crisis caused by the Covid-19 outbreak, inflation levels were low and in some economies negative variations were reported.
After the Economic Activity Confidence Index reported a 19% drop in March 2020, in April the situation worsened with a -43% year-on-year variation, a drop that agrees with the advance of the health crisis in the country.
In April 2020, the level of the Economic Activity Confidence Index stood at 32.64 points, 43.25% lower than that recorded in March 2020 (57.52 points) and fell by 26.83% compared to April 2019 (44.61 points), reported the Bank of Guatemala.
During February in the country the CPI reported -0.3% year-on-year variation, which is partly explained by the behavior of the prices of the transport category.
The groups that showed decreases in the National Urban CPI for February compared to January 2020 were: Transportation with 1.3%, Food and non-alcoholic beverages with 0.8%, Recreation and culture with 0.4%, Communications with 0.3%, Alcoholic beverages and tobacco, clothing and footwear, and Health all with 0.1%, reported the General Comptroller of the Republic.
During the second month of the year, the CPI registered a 3.7% year-on-year variation, which is less than the 4.1% reported in January 2020.
The variation in the Consumer Price Index was -0.13% in February compared to January 2020, placing accumulated inflation in the January-February period at 0.20%. With this result, year-on-year inflation measured from February 2019 to February 2020, reached 3.66%, below the center of the target range of 4%±1% established in the Monetary Program.
In the second month of the year the CPI registered a 1.79% year-on-year variation, an inflationary rhythm that exceeds the 1.58% reported in January.
Of the 315 goods and services that make up the consumption basket, 50% increased in price, 41% decreased in price and 9% presented no variation, informed the National Institute of Statistics and Census.
During the second month of the year, the Consumer Price Index registered a 3.99% year-on-year variation, a rise that was determined in part by the behavior of the prices of education services, hotels and restaurants.
From the Central Bank of Honduras report:
The monthly behavior of the CPI was determined by the contribution of the item "Education" with 0.51 percentage points (pp), together with the items "Recreation and Culture" and "Hotels, Cafes and Restaurants" with 0.04 pp, each. On the contrary, "Transportation" contributed -0.18 pp to the monthly inflation.
After production in Nicaragua fell 3.8% in 2018, the IMF estimates that during 2019 the GDP will contract by 5.7%, however, the agency predicts that by 2020 the variation could be only -1.2%.
Real GDP is estimated to have contracted by another 5.7% in 2019 due to the deterioration in aggregate demand, fiscal consolidation and sanctions, the IMF reported after its visit to the country.
At the beginning of 2020 in Panama, a positive variation in the Consumer Price Index was reported, a behavior that was determined partly by the prices of Transportation and Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco.
From the report of the General Comptroller of the Republic:
The groups showing an increase in the National Urban CPI of January 2020, as compared to December 2019 were: Housing, water, electricity and gas with 0.6%; Transportation with 0.5%; Alcoholic beverages and tobacco, Education and Diverse goods and services all with 0.3%; Health and Restaurants and hotels both with 0.1%.
As of December 2019, IMAE recorded a 2.8% increase, partly due to the performance of the manufacturing and service sectors.
This result places the average annual growth in production at 1.9%, lower than the previous year's (2.6%), which, as the Central Bank has pointed out, reflects the economic slowdown experienced by the country since April 2016 and which reached its lowest point in May 2019, a situation caused by a combination of circumstances (uncertainty associated with the fiscal situation, external shocks to trade flows and adverse weather conditions), the official report explains.
At the end of 2019, economic activity in Guatemala grew 3%, behavior that was explained in part by the performance of the commercial and construction sectors.
From the Bank of Guatemala report:
During December 2019 the economic activity measured by the IMAE estimate, registered a 3.1% growth rate with respect to December 2018 (2.2%).
This behavior was explained by the positive result mainly experienced by the economic activities of Commerce and vehicle repair; Construction; Real estate activities; Financial and insurance activities; and Agriculture, livestock, forestry and fishing, which had a greater influence on the growth rate of the total IMAE.
Food and non-alcoholic beverages, Transport, and Recreation and culture, were the sectors that had the greatest incidence in January for the CPI to report a 4.1% year-on-year variation.
The Central Bank of the Dominican Republic (BCRD) reported that the overall consumer price index (CPI) experienced a 0.33% change in January 2020 compared to December 2019, while the underlying price index or monetary conditions index experienced a 0.38% change in the first month of the year.
After the inflationary rhythm went from 3.8% to 4.1% between November and December 2019, during January 2020 the year-on-year CPI was 4.3%.
In the first month of 2020, the monthly variation of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 0.24% (0.03% in January 2019), an increase driven by the rise in the price of services related to housing, some food and recreational and cultural items and services.
During January, the Consumer Price Index registered a 1.58% year-on-year variation, a rise that was influenced by the increase in the prices of Rent and housing services, and Education.
Out of the 315 goods and services that make up the consumer basket, 48% increased in price, 44% decreased in price and 8% showed no variation, reported the National Institute of Statistics and Census.
During the first month of the year, family remittances sent to Guatemala registered a 22% year-on-year variation, a rise that exceeds the 8% increase registered in the same period in 2018.
According to the most recent figures from the Bank of Guatemala, in January 2020 the country received remittances of $834 million, an amount that exceeds by $46 million that registered in the same month of 2019.
At the end of 2019, Panama reported a negative variation in the Consumer Price Index, a behavior that was determined partly by the prices of air passenger transport.
From the report of the General Comptroller of the Republic:
The groups that presented decreases in the National Urban CPI of December, with respect to November 2019 were: Transportation with 0.5%; Furniture, home articles and ordinary home maintenance, and Recreation and culture both with 0.4%; Alcoholic beverages and tobacco with 0.2%; Food and non-alcoholic beverages, and diverse goods and services both with 0.1%.