The Costa Rican government is facing a complex scenario, since by not achieving consensus to access international loans, it will be forced to seek domestic funding sources, which would put pressure on the exchange rate and interest rates to rise.
The economic crisis that the country is going through due to the outbreak of covid-19 ended up sharpening the country's fiscal situation.
Arguing that the current account deficit has been reduced, and that inflation remains within the target range, the International Monetary Fund approved the first revision of the Stand-By 2019-2021 agreement.
From the press release by IMF:
On December 18, 2019, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed first reviews of Honduras’ performance under an economic program supported by a two-year Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) and a two-year arrangement under the Standby Credit Facility (SCF). This program was approved on July 15 th, 2019 in the amount of about US$ 309.2 million (SDR 224.8 million), the equivalent of 90 percent of Honduras quota in the IMF (see Press Release 19/285 ).
Moody's kept the rating of long-term issues and senior unsecured bonds at B1, arguing that there is a "solid fiscal framework that has stabilized debt at lower levels compared to its rated peers.
Honduras' fiscal balance behaves favorably with respect to GDP and has been enough to stabilize overall government debt at around 41% of GDP, Moody's report explains.
Justifying a larger-than-expected economic contraction, a growing fiscal deficit and a greater risk of internal and external financial constraints, the rating agency lowered the rating from B to B-.
This is Fitch Ratings' second downgrade so far this year. In the first quarter, the rating was B+ with a solid outlook, in the second quarter the rating agency downgraded it to B with a negative outlook, and now it downgraded it to B-, and kept the negative outlook.
After Costa Rica's Constitutional Chamber prepared the path for tax reform in the Congress, the dollar's price against the local currency stopped rising, and positive reactions were reported in the risk outlook.
Last November 23rd, Court IV issued its judgment, so the law project has a free way to move forward more quickly during the coming weeks in the Congress.
The Central Bank explained that the short-term loan of almost $870 million to the Ministry of Finance will have no impact on inflation.
From a statement issued by the Central Bank of Costa Rica:
September 25, 2018.In accordance with what is authorized by Costa Rican legislation, the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) agreed, on Tuesday, September 25, 2018, to the acquisition of Treasury Notes, issuedby the Ministry of Finance, for an amount of ¢498,858.8 million.
The cost of not making decisions about the serious fiscal problem affecting Costa Rica "is incommensurable and has the potential to affect not only the economic but also the social and democratic order of the country."
This is the emphatic and clear position of the Comptroller General of the Republic of Costa Rica regarding the serious and risky situation in which the public finances of the country find themselves.Furthermore, as is well mentioned in the report "Fiscal and Budgetary Evolution I semester 2018", published recently by the institution, if decisions related to solving problems of short-term liquidity and modifying the structure of public expenditure to the medium and long term continue to be delayed, the cost to the country will be much more than just economic.
The downgrade and Outlook change reflect increasing political instability and the corresponding deterioration of Nicaragua's investment, economic growth, and public finance outlook
From a statement issued by Fitch Ratings:
Fitch Ratings-New York-22 June 2018: Fitch Ratings has downgraded Nicaragua's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'B' from 'B+'. The Outlook is Negative.
The entity recognizes the continued economic recovery, but warns that potential growth is below the desirable level, debt remains high, and wide financing gaps are projected for 2019 and in the future.
From a statement issued by the IMF:
On May 11, 2018, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation with El Salvador.
In the view of Fitch Ratings, despite the high level political noise of the past three years, economic growth has proved relatively resilient, supported partly by favorable external U.S. demand and strong worker remittances flows.
From a report by Fitch Ratings:
Fitch Ratings-New York-17 April 2018: Fitch Ratings has affirmed Guatemala's long-term, foreign-currency (LT FC) Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB' with a Stable Outlook.
The Government and the private sector have started negotiations to create a proposal for fiscal reform, which could include, among other things, changes aimed at achieving the financial sustainability of the Social Security scheme.
Without revealing details of the first sessions, the Higher Council of Private Enterprise (Cosep) reported that the reform negotiated with the authorities is focused on preventing insolvency of the Nicaraguan Social Security Institute and guaranteeing the country's economic growth.
According to Fitch Ratings, the fiscal outlook still faces considerable uncertainty in Costa Rica, despite the promise of President-elect Carlos Alvarado to carry out comprehensive reforms to reduce the deficit significantly.
In the view of the ratings agency, "... President-elect Carlos Alvarado's strategy for the future is not yet clear. Pressing the smaller 'fast track' bill might be politically easier, but it could reduce the urgency around additional reforms; Supporting a larger package could be more politically difficult."
Panama's GDP grew by 5.4% in 2017, with transport, storage and communication activities standing out as the most dynamic, as a result of the Canal expansion.
From a statement issued by the Ministry of Finance in Panama:
March 27, 2018The Minister of Economy and Finance, Dulcidio De La Guardia, presented today before the plenary session of the National Assembly of Deputies a report on the General Treasury Account corresponding to fiscal period 2017.
The institution highlights the progress that has been made in reducing the fiscal deficit and stabilizing the debt, but warns that a greater effort is needed to place the debt on a downward trajectory.
From a statement issued by the International Monetary Fund:
The IMF staff team visited San Salvador during February 5—16 for the 2018 Article IV consultation [1] and held productive discussions with the Salvadoran authorities, parliamentarians, business community, and social partners. The consultation was based on revised National Accounts statistics.
The Costa Rican Congress has approved a fast track bill that would transform sales tax into a VAT of 13% and establish a 4% rate on the purchase of packaging, wrapping and raw materials, among other things.
The bill that could be approved by the Legislative Assembly also includes "... taxes on books in all their formats, air tickets, purchase of packaging and raw materials, as well as equipment and machinery (except if there is an express exoneration) and services for agricultural and agroindustrial production."