During March 2021, the Monthly Index of Economic Activity reported a variation of 13% when compared to the levels reported in the same month of 2020, a period that was marked by the closure of the economy due to the pandemic.
The economic activities that most contributed to the positive result were: Manufacturing Industry and Commerce, and to a lesser extent, Mail and Telecommunications, Financial Intermediation and Other Services -related to health and net taxes-. These contributions were partially offset by the negative variations in agricultural activities, Transportation and Storage, and Hotels and Restaurants, highlights the report of the Central Bank of Honduras (BCH).
Reducing costs and barriers to foreign trade in Central American economies is key for the region to overcome the economic recession caused by the outbreak of Covid-19.
A report prepared by the World Bank explains that boosting economic activity and employing a higher percentage of the labor force are objectives that can be achieved through reforms that strengthen the private sector and attract investment.
Twelve months after Central America began a health and economic crisis triggered by the covid-19 outbreak, Guatemala was the fastest recovering economy and Panamanian economic activity is the slowest to return to pre-pandemic levels.
In March 2020, the first cases of covid-19 began to be detected in the countries of the region. The highly contagious disease, which at that time had already claimed the lives of thousands of people around the world, forced Central American governments to establish mobility restrictions.
Strengthening trade between the US and the region, fighting corruption in the Northern Triangle and reducing illegal migration flows, are some of the axes on which Joe Biden, the US president who has been sworn in, is expected to focus.
Biden, representative of the Democratic Party and winner of the last US elections, whose results were close, arrives at the White House to replace Donald Trump.
As a result of the pandemic in May 2020, the IMAE hit bottom by falling 22% year-on-year, but from June onwards, smaller falls began to be reported and in October the decline was barely 1%; however, in November the country fell back by 12%.
National production, measured through the original series of the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMAE), reflected a 12% year-on-year decrease in November 2020, determined by the negative impact of the pandemic, to which was added the losses in production due to the flooding caused in the national territory in the first half of November by the occurrence of tropical storms Eta and Iota.
Because of the fall in economic activity and the restrictions imposed to contain the spread of covid-19, businessmen in Costa Rica and Panama predict that the process of economic recovery will not be completed in the near future.
In this crisis scenario generated by the covid-19 outbreak, the Costa Rican economy does not show clear signs of recovery, since during November 2020 the Monthly Index of Economic Activity reported a year-on-year fall of 6.2%, a decline similar to that reported in October, when it was 6.3%.
The next U.S. president is not yet known, but in the region it is expected that in an eventual new Trump administration, the focus will be on the recovery of the U.S. economy, while an eventual Biden administration would focus on countering corruption and illegal migration.
Two days after Election Day took place, the United States is experiencing an atmosphere of tension and uncertainty, since because the results are closed, neither candidate can yet be declared the winner.
As of June, Central American economies began to show signs of incipient recovery and as of August, Guatemala, Nicaragua and Costa Rica registered the smallest drops in their levels of economic activity.
Since March of this year, the region has faced a severe economic crisis generated by the outbreak of covid-19. The strict quarantines decreed, the closure of borders and commercial establishments, ended up damaging the dynamism of productive activities.
The Council of Ministers approved that Tegucigalpa and San Pedro Sula will return from July 29 to Phase I of the Opening Plan, which allows companies to operate with 20% of their workforce.
According to the proposal put forward by the Multisectoral Table, commerce and companies in general were authorized so that as of Wednesday, July 29, they can resume their activities and business, according to the percentage of the workforce, as per the authorized region, using the biosecurity protocols approved by the Ministry of Labor and Social Security.
The World Bank projects that the Central American economy will contract by 3.6% this year, due to restrictions on movement, a decline in remittances and tourism, and a drop in agricultural prices.
The sudden and widespread impact of the coronavirus pandemic and the measures taken to contain it have caused a drastic contraction in the global economy, which, according to World Bank forecasts, will shrink by 5.2% this year, the bank reported on June 8.
Structural changes in world trade, consumer preference for living on the outskirts of cities and a growing demand for technological equipment to be able to work from home are some of the turns economies will experience in the new reality.
Most companies globally have been focused on understanding the new business environment, which derives from the change in the ways people relate to each other as a result of the covid-19 outbreak.
Financial Intermediation, and Manufacturing Industries, largely determined the 2.5% increase in GDP during the fourth quarter of last year, compared to the same period in 2018.
Financial Intermediation, Insurance and Pension Funds increased 1.7%, boosted by income received from commissions and interest on the loan portfolio, reported the Central Bank of Honduras.
Agriculture, livestock, forestry and fisheries, and financial intermediation largely determined the 2.4% increase in GDP in the third quarter of last year, compared to the same period in 2018.
Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry and Fishing registered a 2.6% increase, mainly because of the rise in the Gross Added Value (GVA) of coffee cultivation as a result of reseeding, maintenance and fertilization in the farms during the third quarter, informed the Central Bank of Honduras (BCH).
Arguing that the current account deficit has been reduced, and that inflation remains within the target range, the International Monetary Fund approved the first revision of the Stand-By 2019-2021 agreement.
From the press release by IMF:
On December 18, 2019, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed first reviews of Honduras’ performance under an economic program supported by a two-year Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) and a two-year arrangement under the Standby Credit Facility (SCF). This program was approved on July 15 th, 2019 in the amount of about US$ 309.2 million (SDR 224.8 million), the equivalent of 90 percent of Honduras quota in the IMF (see Press Release 19/285 ).