Because the economy is on the road to rebound after a temporary slowdown, the entity forecasts that in 2019 will register a 6% increase and not 6.3%, as initially planned.
Panama's economic fundamentals remain strong. The economy is on the road to rebounding from the temporary slowdown and will be gradually converging to its potential growth of 5.5% in the medium term, explains the IMF after its last visit to the country.
Because of the strong impact of the strike of public employees in the last months of the year, at the end of 2018 economic activity in Costa Rica reported a growth of just 2%, down from 3% reported at the end of 2017.
As of December 2018, the majority of economic activities moderated their growth with respect to what was observed in the same month of the previous year, with a 1.8% year-on-year variation in the general IMAE indicator, informed the Central Bank of Costa Rica.
Improving trust between the public sector and businessmen, and recovering the productivity of the economy, are some of the challenges facing the administration of President-elect, Nayib Bukele.
After last February 3, the candidate of the Gana party, Nayib Bukele, won the first round of presidential elections in El Salvador, the business sector anticipates the challenges of the new administration.
The Central Bank estimates that Costa Rica's economy will increase by 3.2%, mainly because of private consumption and a rebound in public investment.
According to the Central Bank's 2019-2020 Macroeconomic Program, the Costa Rican economy will increase by 3.2% in 2019 and by 3% in 2020.
The authorities consider that economic growth in 2019 will be boosted by private consumption, reflecting the increase in confidence after the approval of the fiscal reform and the impact of the improvement in the terms of trade on disposable income, and by government consumption (recovery effect after the strike).
Up to November 2018, the economic activity index fell 5% with respect to the same month in 2017, mainly because of the performance in the Hotels and Restaurants and Transport and Communications sectors.
The report of the Central Bank of Nicaragua states that "... in the eleventh month of 2018 the IMAE registered a 5.1 percent decrease with respect to November 2017, an average annual variation of -1.9 percent and a decrease in the accumulated variation of 2.6 percent.
In Nicaragua, the government plans to increase employer, labor, and state Social Security contributions, and to approve a tax reform that would increase taxes for medium and large companies.
Although the country has been in a serious economic and political crisis since April 2018, when the government tried to implement reforms to the Nicaraguan Institute of Social Security (INSS), the Ortega administration is once again trying to make changes to the institution, this time through an administrative resolution.
In accordance with the behavior that has been reported in recent years, in 2018 the country received $5,469 million in family remittances, 8% more than that recorded in 2017.
The report of the Central Reserve Bank (BCR) explains that last year the five main departments receiving family remittances were: San Salvador (19.6% of the total country), San Miguel (11.7%), La Unión (8.2%), Santa Ana (7.9%) and La Libertad (7.7%).
Because of the performance of the Financial Intermediation and Manufacturing sectors, economic activity reported a 3.7% year-on-year increase in November 2018.
The upward trend in Financial Intermediation, Insurance and Pension Funds is explained by the increase in interest income derived from loan balances granted by banks, together with the performance of pension institutes due to higher contributions received and returns on their investments, reported the Central Bank of Honduras (BCH).
Last year, the flow of family remittances registered by the country reached the highest annual amount, with $9.288 million, 13% more than in 2017.
The most recent figures from the Bank of Guatemala show that in December 2018 the country received $843 million in remittances, 17% more than the $720 million recorded in the same month in 2017.
Between 2011 and 2018, remittance income has nearly doubled, rising from $4.378 million to $9.288 million in 2018.
Because of the political crisis that began in Nicaragua in April, during the third quarter of last year the country's GDP fell by 4.5% compared to the same period in 2017.
The Central Bank of Nicaragua reported that in the third quarter of 2018, the economy registered a 4.8 percent year-on-year decline and a 0.5 percent annual average reduction.
"The tightening of global financing conditions is a concern for Central American countries with large current account deficits or those highly dependent on capital flows."
According to the report "World Economic Outlook - January 2019" compiled by the World Bank (WB), countries with a high external debt burden would be at risk if a sudden change in investor confidence in emerging market and developing economies were to occur.
During the first nine months of 2018, Foreign Direct Investment flows to the country totaled $457 million, almost 5% more than in the same period in 2017.
From the Central Reserve Bank statement:
At the end of the third quarter of 2018, increases in foreign direct investment (FDI) totaled US$1,221.8 million, reflecting a 24.1% increase (US$237.2 million) over the previous year.
Arguing that the medium-term forecasts indicate that the inflation trajectory will remain above the tolerance range, the BCH decided to raise the Monetary Policy Rate by 0.25%.
From the BCH press release:
January 4th, 2019. In ordinary session No.158-10-12/2018, the Open Market Operations Commission (COMA) of the Central Bank of Honduras (BCH), analyzed the recent evolution and perspectives for the main macroeconomic and financial indicators, at domestic and international levels.
During the new year, the main challenge for Costa Rica's economy will be to increase above 3%, given that 2018 was marked by a context of fiscal uncertainty and economic slowdown.
According to the Central Bank of Costa Rica, economic growth, measured by the year-on-year variation of the trend cycle of gross domestic product (GDP), slowed last year, and recorded to the third quarter a 2.1% rate (3.2% in the same period of 2017 and 2.8% as the average rate of the two previous quarters).
The economic environment in 2018 was defined by a context of fiscal uncertainty, economic slowdown and greater financial volatility, together with a difficult external environment.
Regarding the fiscal uncertainty occupying a large part of last year's economic agenda, explains the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) which was originated, firstly, in the electoral process that lasted until April, and later in the difficulties faced to achieve an agreement that would help restore the sustainability of public finances in the medium term.