After the political and social crisis that began in April, the Nicaraguan economy will lose more than $1.3 billion this year, and GDP could decline by 4%, together with the collateral effects suffered by the countries of the region.
Several indicators have reflected the weak performance of the country's economy since the crisis began.
During the eleventh month of the year, the CPI registered a 0.52% monthly variation, mainly because of the prices of Food and non-alcoholic beverages, and Communications.
The Central Bank of Nicaragua reported that in accumulated terms, national inflation reached 3.24% (4.51% in November 2017), caused by the behavior of goods and services prices in the sectors of Transportation; Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels; and Education with a joint contribution of 1.642 percentage points. In year-on-year terms, inflation was at 4.40%, 0.95 percentage points lower than that registered in November 2017, and subjacent inflation was 4.14% (4.07% in November 2017).
In the first ten months of the year, the country received $1.226 million in remittances from abroad, an increase of almost 8% compared to the same period in 2017.
The Central Bank of Nicaragua (BCN) reported that remittances totaled US$128.9 million in October (US$118.5 million in October 2017), an 8.8 percent year-on-year variation.
Following the trend observed since May, in September the monthly index of economic activity in Nicaragua reported a 4.3% drop compared to the same month in 2017.
The Central Bank of Nicaragua reported that the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMAE) registered a 4.3 percent decrease compared to September 2017, with an annual variation of -0.2 percent and a 1.9 percent decrease in the accumulated variation.
Justifying a larger-than-expected economic contraction, a growing fiscal deficit and a greater risk of internal and external financial constraints, the rating agency lowered the rating from B to B-.
This is Fitch Ratings' second downgrade so far this year. In the first quarter, the rating was B+ with a solid outlook, in the second quarter the rating agency downgraded it to B with a negative outlook, and now it downgraded it to B-, and kept the negative outlook.
Arguing that the country's fiscal and financial profiles have weakened, Standard & Poor´s downgraded from B to B- the negative outlook for Nicaragua's foreign currency debt.
The negative outlook reflects a greater than one of every three probabilities of a downgrade in the next 12 months because of possible additional pressure on the balance of payments or the domestic financial system in dollar terms, given the government's limited foreign exchange financing options.
During the tenth month of the year, the CPI registered a monthly variation of 0.51%, mainly because of the prices of Food and non-alcoholic beverages.
According to the report of the Central Bank of Nicaragua, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed an increase of 0.51 percent (0.55% in October 2017), mainly caused by the behavior of prices in some goods and services of the Food and non-alcoholic beverages divisions (0.67%); Transportation (1.56%) and Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (0.82%); which together contributed 0.429 percentage points to the variation observed. On the other hand, the Leisure and culture division showed a decrease of 0.29 percent (-0.011pp).
The decline in economic activity is the reason for the year-on-year decline of 36% reported in the capital goods imports up to August this year.
According to figures from the Central Bank of Nicaragua (BCN), between August 2017 and the same month of this year, imports of capital goods registered a fall of 35.8%, declining from $107 million to $69 million.
The region is expected to conclude 2018 with a rise of just over 4% in the volume exported and just 3.6% in value, due to the fall in international prices of several agricultural products.
According to the International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean 2018, published by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), it is expected that this year Central America will export larger volumes at lower prices.
In September, sales of houses in Nicaragua reported a fall of 80%, and sales of vehicles and hotels were reduced 75% and 70%, respectively, compared to the same month last year.
According to the Second Monitoring of Economic Activities in Nicaragua, prepared by the Superior Council of Private Enterprise (Cosep) and the Nicaraguan Foundation for Economic and Social Development (Funides), during September sales of advertising agencies fell 48%, those of distributors of medical equipment 40% and those of restaurants 35%, compared to the ninth month of 2017.
Preserving macroeconomic and financial stability and restoring private sector confidence are part of the IMF's recommendations to the Nicaraguan government to mitigate the impact of the political and economic crisis.
A team from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) visited Nicaragua, and after evaluating the situation of the economy after more than six months of social and political crisis, forecasts a 4% contraction of the Gross Domestic Product by 2018.
During the first nine months of the year, the country received remittances from abroad for $1.097 million, recording an increase of 7.6% over the same period in 2017.
The Central Bank of Nicaragua (BCN) reported that remittances totaled 121.7 million dollars in September (US$112.8 million in September 2017), which resulted in a year-on-year variation of almost 8%.
After reaching its highest level in June this year with 5.6%, the price index reported a variation of 5.1% in September with respect to the same month in 2017.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.50 percent (0.32% in September 2017), mainly explained by the behavior of the prices in some goods and services of the divisions of Recreation and culture (6.79%); Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuel (1.73%) and Transportation (1.15%); which together contributed 0.496 percentage points to the observed variation.
Because of the political crisis that Nicaragua has experienced since April, during the second quarter of the year the country's GDP decreased by 4.4% compared to the same period in 2017.
The Central Bank of Nicaragua reported that in the second quarter of 2018, the Nicaraguan economy recorded a year-on-year decline of 4.4 percent and an average annual growth of 1.6 percent in the original data, according to the preliminary estimate of quarterly GDP. With this result, economic activity fell 0.9 percent in the first half.
The IMAE reported in August a 4% fall with respect to the same month in 2017, explained by the behavior of the economic activity registered in hotels, restaurants and shops.
In August, the monthly index of economic activity (IMAE) decreased 3.9 percent over the same month last year. The average annual variation increased 0.5 percent and the cumulative evolution of the January-August period decreased 1.5 percent. The implicit variation of the IMAE, estimated with the cyclical trend series, registered an interannual variation of -3.6 percent. Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted series of the IMAE increased 0.6 percent compared to July 2018, reported the Central Bank of Nicaragua.
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