In January, the economic activity in Guatemala reported a 3.4% increase regarding the same month in 2018, mainly because of the performance of Transport and Private Services.
The Bank of Guatemala Report states that "... The economic activity measured by the estimation of the IMAE in January 2019, showed a 3.4% growth rate (1.2% in January 2018).
During the second month of the year, transportation and recreation were some of the spending divisions that caused the rise of the CPI in the country.
The most important inflation levels of February 2019 are the following: monthly inflation of 0.14%, inflationary rhythm of 4.46% and accumulated inflation of 1.49%, informed the National Statistics Institute (INE).
After January 2019 the Confidence in Economic Activity Index in Guatemala reported a 3% y-o-y decrease, in February the variation was of -8% regarding the same month of 2018.
The report of the Bank of Guatemala summarizes that during February "... An inflationary rhythm of 3.96% was forecast for February, 4.09% for March and 4.19% for April 2019. As to December 2019 and 2020, the Panel foresees an inflationary rhythm of 4.16% and 4.33%, in that order. In addition, for a horizon of 12 and 24 months (February 2020 and February 2021) the Panel forecast an inflationary rhythm of 4.23% and of 4.25%, respectively.
In the first two months of 2019, income from family remittances in the country totaled $1.379 million, 9% more than in the same period last year.
The most recent data from the Bank of Guatemala show that in February 2019 the country received $690 million in remittances, 10% more than the $630 million recorded in the same month in 2018.
Between the first two months of 2012 and the same period in 2019, remittance income has almost doubled, from $655 million in 2012 to $1.379 million in 2019.
During 2018, family remittances to Central American countries and the Dominican Republic totaled $28.670 million, of which $9.288 million went to Guatemala.
In 2018, family remittances to Central America and the Dominican Republic (CARD) grew 11%, showing a slight slowdown with respect to what was observed in 2017 (12.0%). This slight slowdown was observed in all countries except Honduras, explained the Economic Commission for Latin America (ECLAC).
The behavior of credit to the private sector, public spending, imports and remittances would explain the higher growth expected for the economy this year.
The Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) reported that this year's economic growth is projected to range between 3% and 3.8%, with a central value of 3.4%, up from the 3.1% reported during 2018.
Banco de Guatemala decided to keep the monetary policy rate at 2.75%, arguing that several short-term indicators of the economic activity show a dynamism congruent with the projected range of economic growth.
Other reasons to keep the leading rate without variants is that the prognosis and inflation expectations, for 2019 as well as for 2020, are located within the tolerance limit of the goal (4% +/- 1%), according to the Banco de Guatemala.
After recording at the end of 2017, a 2.6% year-on-year increase in economic activity, in December last year the IMAE closed a 3.3% increase.
The most recent figures estimated by the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) specify that between November and December last year, economic activity registered a 5.7% increase.
Up to January 2019 in Guatemala the year-on-year variation of the CPI was almost 4%, well above the rate of 2.3% registered at the end of 2018.
The most important inflation levels in January 2019 are as follows: monthly inflation of 1.35%, inflationary rhythm of 4.10% and accumulated inflation of 1.35% were registered, reported the National Statistics Institute (INE).
During the first month of the year, remittances from abroad to Guatemala totaled $688 million, 8% more than what was received in January 2018.
According to figures from the Bank of Guatemala, in January 2019 the country received $688 million in remittances, 8% more than the $635 million recorded in the same month in 2018.
In the last seven years, the amount of family remittances reported in January has doubled, with $305 million recorded in the first month of 2012 and $688 million in 2019.
After December 2018, the Confidence in Economic Activity Index in Guatemala reported an 8% year-on-year increase, in January the variation was -3% regarding the same month in 2017.
The Bank of Guatemala Report summarizes that "... An inflationary rhythm of 3.34% is forecast for January, 3.47% for February and 3.56% for March 2019. Regarding December 2019 and 2020, the Panel foresees an inflationary rhythm of 3.95% and 4.19%, in that order.
The growth of family remittances, the recovery of credit to the private sector and the upturn in investment in capital goods would determine a better economic performance this year.
In a forum organized by the Chamber of Industry of Guatemala, representatives of the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) and Central American Business Intelligence (CABI), agreed that this year the country's economy could register a better performance than in 2018.
Last year, the flow of family remittances registered by the country reached the highest annual amount, with $9.288 million, 13% more than in 2017.
The most recent figures from the Bank of Guatemala show that in December 2018 the country received $843 million in remittances, 17% more than the $720 million recorded in the same month in 2017.
Between 2011 and 2018, remittance income has nearly doubled, rising from $4.378 million to $9.288 million in 2018.
Up to December of last year, the year-on-year variation of the Consumer Price Index was 2.3%, an inflationary rhythm lower than the 5.7% recorded at the end of 2017.
The most important inflation levels for December 2018 are as follows: 0.13% monthly inflation, 2.31% inflationary rhythm and 2.31% cumulative inflation. The monthly inflation (0.13%), accumulated and year-on-year (2.31%), registered a deceleration regarding December of the previous year (0.95%), (5.68%), informed the National Statistics Institute.
In December 2018, the Confidence in Economic Activity Index in Guatemala reported a 14% increase regarding November, and in relation to the same month in 2017 it increased 8%.
The Banco de Guatemala informed that in the last Economic Expectations Survey an inflationary rhythm of 4.01% is forecast for December 2018. It foresees 3.93% for January 3.96% for February and 4.24% for December.