"The tightening of global financing conditions is a concern for Central American countries with large current account deficits or those highly dependent on capital flows."
According to the report "World Economic Outlook - January 2019" compiled by the World Bank (WB), countries with a high external debt burden would be at risk if a sudden change in investor confidence in emerging market and developing economies were to occur.
The variation of the CPI reported during December 2018, was determined by the behavior of prices of Transport and Food and alcoholic beverages.
The National Institute of Statistics and Census reported that, during December, the goods and services showing the greatest positive effect are: tourist packages, subscription television and internet service. On the other hand, gasoline, airfare and liquefied gas were among the main with the greatest negative effect.
During the new year, the main challenge for Costa Rica's economy will be to increase above 3%, given that 2018 was marked by a context of fiscal uncertainty and economic slowdown.
According to the Central Bank of Costa Rica, economic growth, measured by the year-on-year variation of the trend cycle of gross domestic product (GDP), slowed last year, and recorded to the third quarter a 2.1% rate (3.2% in the same period of 2017 and 2.8% as the average rate of the two previous quarters).
The economic environment in 2018 was defined by a context of fiscal uncertainty, economic slowdown and greater financial volatility, together with a difficult external environment.
Regarding the fiscal uncertainty occupying a large part of last year's economic agenda, explains the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) which was originated, firstly, in the electoral process that lasted until April, and later in the difficulties faced to achieve an agreement that would help restore the sustainability of public finances in the medium term.
Higher domestic demand and increased investment are the factors that will influence the 3.3% growth forecast for the regional economy next year.
According to forecasts by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), in 2019 Panama will be the economy with the highest growth in Central America, with an expected rate of 5.6%.
It would be followed by Honduras, with expected 3.6% GDP growth, Guatemala with 3%, Costa Rica with 2.9% and El Salvador, with an increase of 2.4%. Only in Nicaragua is the economy expected to decline. According to ECLAC, GDP will fall by 2%.
Businessmen in Costa Rica ask the government to complete projects that promote the reactivation of the economy next year, where construction and agriculture are the highest priority activities.
In addition to the economic rebound, the Costa Rican Union of Chambers and Associations of Private Business Sector (UCCAEP) expects the country not to focus on single-issue discussions, as happened in 2018 with the fiscal plan.
In 2018, nearly 13,000 new jobs were generated in Costa Rica because of investment in 48 new projects in the service, manufacturing and other productive sectors.
The Costa Rican Coalition of Development Initiatives (CINDE) reported that because of new companies arrived in the country together with investments made by companies already installed, 12,961 new jobs were generated in the sectors of services, digital technologies, life sciences, advanced manufacturing and light manufacturing.
Partly because of the growth in private construction, economic activity in Costa Rica reported a 2.9% year-on-year increase in October.
The Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) reported that during the tenth month of the year, 71% of the year-on-year variation is the result of the positive evolution of construction (because of the dynamism of private construction), manufacturing and financial services.
Costa Rica's GDP would only grow 2.6% by the end of 2018, mainly because of the effect of the three-month strike by public officials, the Nicaraguan crisis, rising global interest rates and uncertainty over tax reform.
From the International Monetary Fund statement:
December 12th, 2018. An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team led by Ravi Balakrishnan visited San José from December 4 to 11 to discuss recent economic developments, the fiscal reform, and the overall macro and financial outlook. The mission held fruitful discussions with Central Bank Governor Rodrigo Cubero, Finance Minister Rocío Aguilar, members of the Legislative Assembly, other senior government officials, and representatives of the financial and private sectors. At the end of the visit, Mr. Balakrishnan issued the following statement:
After the political and social crisis that began in April, the Nicaraguan economy will lose more than $1.3 billion this year, and GDP could decline by 4%, together with the collateral effects suffered by the countries of the region.
Several indicators have reflected the weak performance of the country's economy since the crisis began. One of them is the IMAE, as the Central Bank of Nicaragua reported that following the trend that has been observed since May, in September the index reported a 4.3% decrease compared to the same month in 2017.
In the eleventh month of the year, the consumer price index registered a monthly variation of 0.42%, mainly because of the positive effect of the prices of airline tickets and domestic services.
From the report of the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses of Costa Rica:
In November 2018, the general index level was 104.303, compared to 103.864 in the previous month.
Following the Constitutional Chamber's judgment on the tax reform, the exchange rate in Costa Rica temporarily stopped rising, but it is expected to restart upward trend in the coming months.
According to figures from the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR), from mid-August to the first week of November, the Colon depreciated rapidly. However, after Fourth Chamber prepared the tax reform in Congress a few days ago, the dollar's price against the local currency stopped rising.
After Costa Rica's Constitutional Chamber prepared the path for tax reform in the Congress, the dollar's price against the local currency stopped rising, and positive reactions were reported in the risk outlook.
Last November 23rd, Court IV issued its judgment, so the law project has a free way to move forward more quickly during the coming weeks in the Congress.
After the fast depreciation that the Costa Rican currency suffered weeks ago against the Dollar, in the last seven days the exchange rate has fallen from ¢629 to ¢615 per dollar.
Between August 16th and November 6th, the exchange rate in the wholesale market Monex registered an increase of 11%, rising from ¢567.97 to ¢628.81. However, since November 7th the price of the U.S.
The State of the Nation 2018 Report explains that during 2017 and the first months of 2018 the progress of Costa Rica's economy has been adverse and, in the short term, the prospects for economic opportunities, solvency and stability are negative.
Most of the drivers of Costa Rica's economy have declined in recent months, resulting in Costa Rica going through a period of multiple economic and political risks.