The slowdown in GDP growth continuing on from the first quarter of last year is mainly due to moderation of final consumption on the part of households.
From a report by the Central Bank of Costa Rica:
In the second quarter of 2017, economic activity, measured by the trend cycleof the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), grew at an annualized rate of 2.8%, a result that, although positive, maintains a deceleration trend which began in the first quarter of the year that is mainly associated with a moderation in the final consumption of households. In the year-on-year comparison, production registered a growth of 3.1%.
The slowdown recorded in October is mainly due to tropical storm Nate, which greatly affected construction and agricultural production.
From a report by the Central Bank of Costa Rica:
The trend cycle series of the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMAE) had an interannual variation of 2.3% in October 2017, 2 percentage points (pp) lower than the variation seen one year earlier.[GRAFICA caption = "Click to interact with graphics"]
CentralAmericaData's Central American Economic Activity Index registered interannual growth of 3.8% up to September.
Figures from the Information System Central American Macroeconomic Monitoring, by the Business Intelligence Unit at CentralAmericaData: [GRAFICA caption = "Click to interact with the graphic"]
The contraction of 12% in construction destined for private use explains most of the deceleration seen in the economic activity index between July and September of this year.
From a report by the Central Bank of Costa Rica:
The trend cycle series of the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMAE) had an interannual variation of 2.7% in September 2017, which led to an average growth for the first nine months of the year, of 3.6%.[GRAFICA caption = "Click to interact with graphics"]
The Central American Economic Activity Index, prepared by CentralAmericaData, recorded a year-on-year growth of 3.4% as of August.
Figures from the Information System Central American Macroeconomic Monitoring by the Business Intelligence Unit at CentralAmericaData: [GRAFICA caption="Clic para interactuar con la gráfica"]
The lower growth registered in the IMAE in August was mainly due to the performance of construction activity, which fell by 13% year-on-year.
From a report by the Central Bank of Costa Rica:
The cycle trend series of the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMAE) presented a year-on-year variation of 3.2% in August 2017, lower by 0.5 percentage points (pp) than the amount in the same period of the previous year; for its part average growth to August 2017 was 3.9%.[GRAFICA caption = "Click to interact with graphics"]
Although the Gross Domestic Product recorded an increase in the second quarter of the year, the growth rate of private consumption declined and corporate investment fell by around 11%.
From a report by the Central Bank of Costa Rica:
In the second quarter of 2017, economic activity, measured by the trend cycle of real GDP, grew at an annualized rate of 3.5%, reflecting higher external demand as well as the positive contribution of final consumption, both on the part of households and the Government. In a year-on-year comparison, production increased by 4.0%.
Services accounted for 70% of the YoY change of 4.4% recorded in the monthly economic activity index in July of this year.
From a report by the Central Bank of Costa Rica:
The cycle trend series of the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMAE) registered a year-on-year change of 4.4% in July 2017, higher by 0.9 percentage points (pp) than in the same period of the previous year; for its part, the average growth up to July 2017 was 4.3%.[GRAFICA caption = "Click to interact with graphics"]
A rise in interest rates and the depreciation suffered by the Colon against the dollar are the reasons for the slower speed with which private consumption has been growing since mid-2016.
The slower rate at which private consumption has been growing since the first quarter of 2016 is mainly due to an increase in interest rates in colones, which have increased the proportion of income that households have to dedicated to paying off debts.Businesses in the commercial sector believe that this trend towards a slowdown in household consumption could be reversed by the end of the year.
In June, the monthly index of economic activity registered a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, mainly explained by the behavior of services and trade activities.
From a report by the Central Bank of Costa Rica:
The cycle trend series of the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMAE) in June 2017 reflected a year-on-year change of 4.2%, higher by 0.8 percentage points (pp) than in the same period of the previous year (3 , 4% June 2016); evidencing an acceleration that began last April and that places the average growth of the first semester at 4.1%.[GRAFICA caption = "Click to interact with graphics"]
The monthly index of economic activity in the region, compiled by CentralAmericaData, registered a year-on-year growth of 3% in April.
Figures from the Information System ´Central American Macroeconomic Monitoring´ by the Business Intelligence Unit at CentralAmerica Data: [Figure caption = "Click to interact with the graphic"]
In May, the monthly index of economic activity registered a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, mainly explained by the performance of services and trade activities.
From a report by the Central Bank of Costa Rica:
The cycle trend series of the Monthly Economic Activity Index (IMAE) reflected a year-on-year change of 3.9% in May, slightly higher than the same rate of the previous year (3.8% May 2016).For the second consecutive month there was an acceleration in the growth of production.Average growth in May stood at 3.8%, while a year ago it was 4.6%.[GRAFICA caption = "Click to interact with graphics"]
In the first quarter of the year, household final consumption and private construction investment accounted for most of the annualized 3.4% increase in GDP.
From a report by the Central Bank of Costa Rica:
In the first quarter of 2017, economic activity, measured by the cycle trend of the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), grew at an annualized rate of 3.4%, mainly reflecting higher final household consumption expenditure and to a lower extent, an increase in investment in private construction, since external demand showed a moderation in its growth.
The majority of activities showed positive variations with respect to April 2016, with professional, scientific, technical, administrative and support services performing best.
From a statement issued by the Central Bank of Costa Rica:
The cycle trend series of the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMAE), reflected in April a year-on-year growth and average growth of 3.6%, lower by one percentage points (pp) in the inter-annual rate and 1.3 percentage points in the average rate compared to the same period in the previous year.In addition, there was a slight acceleration of the indicator, suggesting that economic activity could be at a turning point compared to what was observed in previous months (deceleration between December 2016 and March 2017). GRAFICA caption = "Click to interact with graphics"]
When looking at economic activity, the performance of services, manufacturing, and, to a lesser extent, of agricultural and livestock industries stand out the most.
From a statement issued by the Central Bank of Costa Rica:
In the first quarter of the current year, the average of the trend cycle of the monthly economic activity index (IMAE) grew by 3.8%, 0.8 percentage points (pp) lower than in the same period in 2016.On the other hand, the interannual rate of the cycle trend was 3.6% (4.9% -Mar 2016). [GRAFICA caption = "Click to interact with graphics"]
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