Central America may be directly impacted by the slowdown in the recovery of the world economy.
For the time being, the region's measures of external and internal demand do not seem affected by the threat of lower growth rates for the economies of partner developed countries. Some central banks had raised their expectations but, in view of the risks, they are likely to revise their growth predictions back to original levels between 2.0% and 2.7%.
The recent increase in the value of the Costa Rican colon versus the dollar is worrisome, not only because there are no clear reasons to explain it, but also because it would be hard to contain it without causing greater problems.
In the past weeks, and without apparent reason, the price of the U.S. dollar in Costa Rica dropped considerably.
Last week we surveyed some financial operators as to why these movements where occurring, the general answer being: “we don’t know”.
“When markets are moving a lot, be prudent. When they remain still, be double prudent”.
In countries with domestic currencies, changes in the exchange rate are always a reason for concern. Economic and financial agents are eager to understand why such fluctuations occur, in order to hedge and if possibly benefit, from them.
Paulo de León, from The Blackbox, compared the price of the Guatemalan Quetzal versus the Euro for the past 10 years.