For the international organization, during 2020, Guatemala's economy showed resilience, since in the context of the crisis caused by the Covid-19 outbreak, the GDP contracted only 1.5%.
According to the International Monetary Fund, in a context of favorable specialization of production and exports, resilience of remittances, and unprecedented support from monetary and fiscal policies, the drop in Guatemalan production was minimal compared to that reported in other Central American countries.
During March 2021, the Monthly Index of Economic Activity reported a variation of 13% when compared to the levels reported in the same month of 2020, a period that was marked by the closure of the economy due to the pandemic.
The economic activities that most contributed to the positive result were: Manufacturing Industry and Commerce, and to a lesser extent, Mail and Telecommunications, Financial Intermediation and Other Services -related to health and net taxes-. These contributions were partially offset by the negative variations in agricultural activities, Transportation and Storage, and Hotels and Restaurants, highlights the report of the Central Bank of Honduras (BCH).
After in January 2021 the Monthly Index of Economic Activity in the country registered an year on year increase of 0.7%, in February a lower growth was registered, which amounted to 0.2%.
The activities with the highest growth were: mining and quarrying, 24.5%, commerce, 6.2%, fishing and aquaculture, 5.6%, construction, 2.4%, and manufacturing industry, 2.3%, among others, informed the Central Bank of Nicaragua (BCN).
In January of this year, the Monthly Index of Economic Activity reported a 15% year-on-year drop, which is similar to the behavior recorded from March to December 2020, a period in which the pandemic severely affected productive activities.
This index contracted considerably, due to the effects of the Covid-19 health emergency. Among the economic sectors that were affected were: Hotels and restaurants, other community, social and personal service activities, construction, commerce, financial intermediation, manufacturing industries, electricity and water, real estate, business and rental activities, and transportation, storage and communications, among others, according to the Comptroller General's Office of the Republic.
Twelve months after Central America began a health and economic crisis triggered by the covid-19 outbreak, Guatemala was the fastest recovering economy and Panamanian economic activity is the slowest to return to pre-pandemic levels.
In March 2020, the first cases of covid-19 began to be detected in the countries of the region. The highly contagious disease, which at that time had already claimed the lives of thousands of people around the world, forced Central American governments to establish mobility restrictions.
During January of this year, the Monthly Index of Economic Activity reported a 3.2% increase compared to the level reported in the same month of 2020.
The Guatemalan economy continues to show positive signs, since after facing a crisis during 2020 due to the covid-19 outbreak, economic activity has recovered quickly in recent months.
As a result of the pandemic in May 2020, the IMAE hit bottom by falling 22% year-on-year, but from June onwards, smaller falls began to be reported and in October the decline was barely 1%; however, in November the country fell back by 12%.
National production, measured through the original series of the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMAE), reflected a 12% year-on-year decrease in November 2020, determined by the negative impact of the pandemic, to which was added the losses in production due to the flooding caused in the national territory in the first half of November by the occurrence of tropical storms Eta and Iota.
After seven months of reporting drops in production levels, which were caused by the crisis generated by the covid-19 outbreak, during October the Monthly Index of Economic Activity registered a 1.3% year-on-year variation.
The health emergency led to a severe economic crisis, which began to become evident in March, when the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMAE) fell 5% year-on-year.
After the IMAE reported year-on-year variations of -9% and -8%, respectively, in July and August, during September the Costa Rican economy continued to recover from the impact of the health crisis by reporting a 6% drop in production.
The Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) reported that the economy is in the process of recovery, as a result of the process of reopening and gradual lifting of sanitary restrictions, which were imposed following the outbreak of covid-19. However, the upturn so far is not enough to fully recover the loss in production of the previous quarter, so the level of activity is still lower than in the last quarter of 2019.
In the critical context of this year, the resilience of remittances and exports, added to the decline in oil prices, would have somewhat shielded the Guatemalan economy, whose GDP would fall only 2% by the end of 2020.
The programs in response to Covid-19 (Bono Familia, Fondo de Protección al Empleo, Fondo de Crédito para Capital de Trabajo), along with the temporary restructuring of loans by the banking system, are helping to sustain household income and business liquidity, the multilateral agency reported after making its last visit.
As of June, Central American economies began to show signs of incipient recovery and as of August, Guatemala, Nicaragua and Costa Rica registered the smallest drops in their levels of economic activity.
Since March of this year, the region has faced a severe economic crisis generated by the outbreak of covid-19.
During July the IMAE registered -4% year-on-year variation, a drop that is less than those reported in April, May and June, months in which due to the crisis generated by the covid-19, production reported contractions of 10%, 8% and 6%, in that order.
In the seventh month of the year, agricultural activity grew by 9.7% (2.1% in the accumulated January-July), due to increased work and production in the cultivation of coffee, corn, beans, rice, sorghum, and peanuts, among other agricultural products, reported the Central Bank of Nicaragua (BCN).
In April the Central Bank of Costa Rica predicted that by the end of 2020 GDP would fall by 3.6%, but due to the current health and economic crisis scenario the projections worsened, and now a 5% contraction in production is estimated.
The effect of the current international situation would be transmitted to the national economy through various channels: growth in trading partners, lower prices of raw materials and financial conditions, according to an official report.
The World Bank projects that the Central American economy will contract by 3.6% this year, due to restrictions on movement, a decline in remittances and tourism, and a drop in agricultural prices.
The sudden and widespread impact of the coronavirus pandemic and the measures taken to contain it have caused a drastic contraction in the global economy, which, according to World Bank forecasts, will shrink by 5.2% this year, the bank reported on June 8.
Costa Rican businessmen propose that given the economic crisis and the new normality that the country will face, the government should promote key strategies such as the sale of state assets, the transformation of public employment and the elimination of privileges in terms of pensions and salaries.
The Union of Chambers and Associations of the Private Business Sector (UCCAEP) presented to President Carlos Alvarado a document called "Pandemic Shock and Economic and Social Policies to Mitigate its Effects", which seeks to provide a way out of the health and economic crisis resulting from the outbreak of covid-19.
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