The World Bank projects that the Central American economy will contract by 3.6% this year, due to restrictions on movement, a decline in remittances and tourism, and a drop in agricultural prices.
The sudden and widespread impact of the coronavirus pandemic and the measures taken to contain it have caused a drastic contraction in the global economy, which, according to World Bank forecasts, will shrink by 5.2% this year, the bank reported on June 8.
Nicaraguan businessmen believe that electoral reform is essential to reactivate the country's economic activity, which has been in decline since the crisis erupted in 2018.
According to estimates by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Nicaragua's Gross Domestic Product contracted by 5.7% in 2019, a drop that complements the year-on-year variation of -3.8% recorded in 2018.
After production in Nicaragua fell 3.8% in 2018, the IMF estimates that during 2019 the GDP will contract by 5.7%, however, the agency predicts that by 2020 the variation could be only -1.2%.
Real GDP is estimated to have contracted by another 5.7% in 2019 due to the deterioration in aggregate demand, fiscal consolidation and sanctions, the IMF reported after its visit to the country.
"Growth remains susceptible to adverse shocks to global growth, economic and socio-political stress in Nicaragua, the continued weakness in consumer and business confidence, and uncertainty regarding the implementation of the fiscal reform.”
After the slowdown in growth between 2017 and early 2019, the economy has recovered since mid-2019, as a result of a rebound in services, agriculture and manufacturing, which produced an estimated 2.1% growth in 2019, reported the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
In Panama the government estimates that in 2020 the economy will grow between 4% and 4.5%, a rise that would be determined by the behavior of construction, tourism and exports.
According to estimates from the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF), by the end of 2019 the increase in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could fluctuate between 3% and 3.5%, while by the present year 2020 it will be between 4% and 4.5%.
The outlook for some economies in the region for 2019 is not the best: in Nicaragua GDP is expected to fall between 5% and 7%, while in Costa Rica the growth estimate at the end of the year was reduced from 3.2% to 2.2%.
The estimates of the Nicaraguan Foundation for Economic and Social Development (Funides), presented in its "Informe de Coyuntura - Julio 2019", indicate that by 2019 an economic contraction of between 5.4% and 6.8% will be reported in the country.
The Bank of Guatemala expects next year's economic growth to be better than in 2018, which would be caused by higher public spending and the growth of family remittances.
Authorities of the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) informed that the Guatemalan economy will close 2018 with a nearly 3% growth, however, for next year is expected that the increase in GDP will be in the range between 3% and 3.8%.
New World Bank projections estimate that because of Nicaragua's political crisis, the country's GDP will fall 4% this year and 1% in 2019.
According to the expectations of the international organization, Nicaragua will be the only economy that will decrease in Central America, because of the political and social crisis in which the country is involved since last April, it is expected that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will decrease 3.8% in 2018 compared to 2017.
The increase reported at the end of the fourth quarter of 2017 is mainly explained by higher spending on final household consumption and higher gross capital formation.
From a report by the Central Bank of Costa Rica:
In the fourth quarter of 2017, economic activity, measured by the trend of the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), grew at an annualized rate of 3.2%, in response, mainly, to higher spending on final household consumption and in gross capital formation. In the year-on-year comparison, production registered a growth of 3.1%.
The slowdown in GDP growth continuing on from the first quarter of last year is mainly due to moderation of final consumption on the part of households.
From a report by the Central Bank of Costa Rica:
In the second quarter of 2017, economic activity, measured by the trend cycleof the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), grew at an annualized rate of 2.8%, a result that, although positive, maintains a deceleration trend which began in the first quarter of the year that is mainly associated with a moderation in the final consumption of households. In the year-on-year comparison, production registered a growth of 3.1%.
Banco de Guatemala plans to close the year with an estimated 3% growth in GDP, and by 2018 it foresees a rebound in economic activity.
A political crisis that seems to have no end, a decline in foreign investment and a slowdown in local economic activity explain most of the meager growth of 3% that Gross Domestic Product could end up registering this year.
Private consumption, driven by a constant growth in remittances, explained part of the 3% increase in GDP at the end of March this year.
For this year the Bank of Guatemala expects economic activity to grow in a range of between 3% and 3.8%, according to statements made by the entity in the report presented on July 5.
The Central Bank has forecast for this year inflation of 4.5% with a margin of ± 1%, and annual growth of 3.6% in exports.
From a report by the Central Bank:
The Central Bank of Honduras (BCH), through Resolution No.81-3 / 2017 of March 2, 2017, approved the 2017-2018 Monetary Program (MP), which sets out the measures for monetary, credit and exchange policy and the prospects of the Honduran economy and the international context for a two-year horizon, in order to guide operators and the general public in decision-making and formation of expectations.
Construction, mining and financial sectors drove growth in the Gross Domestic Product in the first six months of the year.
From a statement issued by the Ministry of Economy and Finance of Panama:
Growth projection for the closure of the 2014 is held in 7%, leading the region.
Panama's economy grew by 6.2%, in the first six months of 2014, to be located the Gross