In the critical context of this year, the resilience of remittances and exports, added to the decline in oil prices, would have somewhat shielded the Guatemalan economy, whose GDP would fall only 2% by the end of 2020.
The programs in response to Covid-19 (Bono Familia, Fondo de Protección al Empleo, Fondo de Crédito para Capital de Trabajo), along with the temporary restructuring of loans by the banking system, are helping to sustain household income and business liquidity, the multilateral agency reported after making its last visit.
The World Bank projects that the Central American economy will contract by 3.6% this year, due to restrictions on movement, a decline in remittances and tourism, and a drop in agricultural prices.
The sudden and widespread impact of the coronavirus pandemic and the measures taken to contain it have caused a drastic contraction in the global economy, which, according to World Bank forecasts, will shrink by 5.2% this year, the bank reported on June 8.
Financial Intermediation, and Manufacturing Industries, largely determined the 2.5% increase in GDP during the fourth quarter of last year, compared to the same period in 2018.
Financial Intermediation, Insurance and Pension Funds increased 1.7%, boosted by income received from commissions and interest on the loan portfolio, reported the Central Bank of Honduras.
Last year, GDP amounted to Ch$66,801 million, and in real terms, production increased by 3% over that reported in 2018.
This 3.0% growth for 2019, in the amount of Ch$43,061.1 million (chained value to 2007), was mainly driven by the mining sector, reported the General Comptroller of the Republic.
The dynamism of the mining sector is specifically explained by the increase in the activity of the extraction of copper concentrate, whose production in tons increased from the third to the fourth quarter by 210%.
Nicaraguan businessmen believe that electoral reform is essential to reactivate the country's economic activity, which has been in decline since the crisis erupted in 2018.
According to estimates by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Nicaragua's Gross Domestic Product contracted by 5.7% in 2019, a drop that complements the year-on-year variation of -3.8% recorded in 2018.
After production in Nicaragua fell 3.8% in 2018, the IMF estimates that during 2019 the GDP will contract by 5.7%, however, the agency predicts that by 2020 the variation could be only -1.2%.
Real GDP is estimated to have contracted by another 5.7% in 2019 due to the deterioration in aggregate demand, fiscal consolidation and sanctions, the IMF reported after its visit to the country.
"Growth remains susceptible to adverse shocks to global growth, economic and socio-political stress in Nicaragua, the continued weakness in consumer and business confidence, and uncertainty regarding the implementation of the fiscal reform.”
After the slowdown in growth between 2017 and early 2019, the economy has recovered since mid-2019, as a result of a rebound in services, agriculture and manufacturing, which produced an estimated 2.1% growth in 2019, reported the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
In Panama the government estimates that in 2020 the economy will grow between 4% and 4.5%, a rise that would be determined by the behavior of construction, tourism and exports.
According to estimates from the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF), by the end of 2019 the increase in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could fluctuate between 3% and 3.5%, while by the present year 2020 it will be between 4% and 4.5%.
The Central Bank estimates that in 2020 economic growth will be 2.5%, which would exceed the 2.3% projected at the end of 2019.
The continuity in the application of public policies aimed at improving the environment for local consumption and investment, allows to foresee a slight rebound in the dynamics of production in 2020, with an estimated annual rate of 2.5%, reported the Central Bank (BCR).
Agriculture, livestock, forestry and fisheries, and financial intermediation largely determined the 2.4% increase in GDP in the third quarter of last year, compared to the same period in 2018.
Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry and Fishing registered a 2.6% increase, mainly because of the rise in the Gross Added Value (GVA) of coffee cultivation as a result of reseeding, maintenance and fertilization in the farms during the third quarter, informed the Central Bank of Honduras (BCH).
After the economies of the region grew by 2.6% in 2018 as a whole, the IMF estimates that 2019 would close with a rise of 2.7% and could reach 3.4% by 2020.
The document "World Economic Outlook", prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), states that for Panama the projected growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2019 was reduced from 5% to 4.3%.
In the second quarter of the year, Costa Rica's GDP grew 1.4% year-on-year, below the 3% reported for the same period in 2018, which is associated with the evolution of internal demand and external demand for the production of companies under the definitive regime.
In the second quarter of 2019, the country's economic activity, as measured by the trend of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) cycle, grew 1.4%, continuing the loss of dynamism observed since the second quarter of 2018, reported the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR).
Construction and financial intermediation largely determined the 1.9% increase in GDP in the second quarter of the year compared with the same period in 2018.
Financial Intermediation increased 1.2% during the second quarter of 2019, explained by the increase in income received by financial institutions from commissions on financial services (credit and debit cards, drafts and transfers, account management and trusts), plus interest derived from the credit portfolio, reported the Central Bank of Honduras.
During the second quarter of the year the constant GDP totaled $10.498 million, 3% more than that reported in the same period of 2018, explained by the activity of transport and trade.
The General Comptroller of the Republic reported that activities related to the domestic economy performed positively this quarter: transportation and communications, commerce, construction, financial intermediation, government services, health and education.
The outlook for some economies in the region for 2019 is not the best: in Nicaragua GDP is expected to fall between 5% and 7%, while in Costa Rica the growth estimate at the end of the year was reduced from 3.2% to 2.2%.
The estimates of the Nicaraguan Foundation for Economic and Social Development (Funides), presented in its "Informe de Coyuntura - Julio 2019", indicate that by 2019 an economic contraction of between 5.4% and 6.8% will be reported in the country.