In January, the Economic Activity Confidence Index registered a 39% increase compared to the same month in 2019, reinforcing the upward trend that has been reported since July 2019.
An inflationary rhythm of 3.72% is forecast for January, 3.71% for February and 3.84% for March 2020. As to December 2020 and 2021, the Panel forecasts an inflationary rhythm of 4.07% and 4.19%, in that order.
In Guatemala, 54% of businessmen believe that in 2020 the local economy will accelerate, 42% believe that stable growth will be reported and 4% believe that a slowdown could be reported.
According to the Third Business Perception Survey conducted by the Coordinating Committee of Agricultural, Commercial, Industrial and Financial Associations (Cacif), 67% of respondents expect greater growth of their companies and 56% expect more employment with the arrival of the new government.
In November of this year, the Index of Confidence in Economic Activity in Guatemala reported a 28% growth with respect to the same month in 2018, reinforcing the upward trend that has been registered since July 2019.
Businessmen forecast an inflationary rhythm of 3.34% and 3.54% for November and December 2019, respectively, as well as 3.69% for January 2020.
According to the Central Bank, the constructive activity and consumption spending that Guatemalans make with the money received from abroad will boost the economy by the end of 2019, and this expansive cycle could extend until 2020.
During this year residential and commercial construction, together with public investment, have affected activities such as manufacturing, mining and quarrying, private services and commerce, informed representatives of the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat).
In its latest update of economic growth projections for 2019, ECLAC estimates that the Dominican Republic will close the year with a 5% increase, followed by Panama, which would reach a growth rate of 3.7%.
According to economic growth projections for Latin America, which were estimated by the Economic Commission for Latin America (ECLAC) and updated in November, the Dominican Republic will be the country in the region that will increase its production the most this year.
In October of this year the Index of Confidence in Economic Activity in Guatemala reported an 18% growth with respect to the same month in 2018, reinforcing the upward trend that has been registered since July 2019.
Entrepreneurs forecast an inflation rate of 3.50% for October, 3.81% for November and 3.94% for December 2019. For December 2020 and 2021, the Panel foresees an inflationary rhythm of 4.32% and 4.28%, in that order, reported the Banco de Guatemala.
After registering a 6% year-on-year rise in August, in September the Confidence in Economic Activity Index in Guatemala showed a 7% variation.
According to the last report of the Banco de Guatemala, an inflationary rhythm of 4.08% is forecast for September, of 4.22% for October and of 4.29% for November 2019. Regarding December 2019 and 2020, the Panel foresees an inflationary rhythm of 4.43% and 4.46%, in that order, reported the Central Bank of Guatemala.
After registering a 20% year-on-year drop in June, in July the Confidence in Economic Activity Index in Guatemala showed a 7% variation.
The report of the Bank of Guatemala states that "... The Panel forecasts an inflationary rhythm of 4.72% for July, of 4.70% for August and of 4.72% for September 2019. Regarding December 2019 and 2020, the Panel foresees an inflationary rhythm of 4.66% and 4.55%, in that order.
After in May 2019 the Confidence in Economic Activity Index in Guatemala increased 14% in year-on-year terms, in June the fall regarding the previous month was of 15%.
The Banco de Guatemala report states that "... The Panel forecasts an inflationary rhythm of 4.45% for June as well as for July and of 4.49% for August 2019. For December 2019 and 2020, the Panel foresees an inflationary rhythm of 4.53% and 4.52%, in that order.
After January 2019 the Confidence in Economic Activity Index in Guatemala reported a 3% y-o-y decrease, in February the variation was of -8% regarding the same month of 2018.
The report of the Bank of Guatemala summarizes that during February "... An inflationary rhythm of 3.96% was forecast for February, 4.09% for March and 4.19% for April 2019. As to December 2019 and 2020, the Panel foresees an inflationary rhythm of 4.16% and 4.33%, in that order. In addition, for a horizon of 12 and 24 months (February 2020 and February 2021) the Panel forecast an inflationary rhythm of 4.23% and of 4.25%, respectively.
The behavior of credit to the private sector, public spending, imports and remittances would explain the higher growth expected for the economy this year.
The Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) reported that this year's economic growth is projected to range between 3% and 3.8%, with a central value of 3.4%, up from the 3.1% reported during 2018.
After December 2018, the Confidence in Economic Activity Index in Guatemala reported an 8% year-on-year increase, in January the variation was -3% regarding the same month in 2017.
The Bank of Guatemala Report summarizes that "... An inflationary rhythm of 3.34% is forecast for January, 3.47% for February and 3.56% for March 2019. Regarding December 2019 and 2020, the Panel foresees an inflationary rhythm of 3.95% and 4.19%, in that order.
The growth of family remittances, the recovery of credit to the private sector and the upturn in investment in capital goods would determine a better economic performance this year.
In a forum organized by the Chamber of Industry of Guatemala, representatives of the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) and Central American Business Intelligence (CABI), agreed that this year the country's economy could register a better performance than in 2018.
In December 2018, the Confidence in Economic Activity Index in Guatemala reported a 14% increase regarding November, and in relation to the same month in 2017 it increased 8%.
The Banco de Guatemala informed that in the last Economic Expectations Survey an inflationary rhythm of 4.01% is forecast for December 2018. It foresees 3.93% for January 3.96% for February and 4.24% for December.
Explained by the dynamics of economic activity and the flow of family remittances, the Central Bank estimates that this year the economy will grow between 3% and 3.8%.
According to the authorities at Banco de Guatemala (Banguat), by 2019 the expectation is that the economy will grow between 3.1% and 4.1%, and in relation to inflation for this year and next, it is expected that the Growth rate will remain close to 4%.