Coffee Prices: What to Expect in 2017

An initial estimate of global coffee production in 2016/17 suggests that the world total will remain relatively stable, up 0.1% to 151.6 million bags.

Friday, January 13, 2017

From the monthly report by the International Coffee Organization:

Coffee production to remain stable despite Arabica/Robusta divergence

An initial estimate of global coffee production in 2016/17 suggests that the world total will remain relatively stable, up 0.1% to 151.6 million bags. Arabica production is potentially set for a record level of 93.5 million bags with bumper crops expected from Brazil, Colombia and Honduras. Prospects for Robusta supply, on the other hand, are less positive, with lower crops expected from most major origins. Prices on the futures markets have reflected these developments recently, with Robusta prices generally showing support and Arabica under pressure, leading to a narrowing in the arbitrage between the two.

The daily price of the ICO composite indicator steadied slightly after its collapse in November, ending the month two cents lower than it started on 130.92 US cents/lb. The composite remained within a relatively narrow range, peaking at 135.04 cents and hitting a 4-month low of 127.62 cents. The Brazilian real also recovered after depreciating in November, but the possibility of a record crop in Brazil in 2016/17 put downward pressure on Arabica prices. Robusta prices, on the other hand, strengthened as heavy rains in Vietnam disrupted supply.

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Global Coffee Prices in May 2016

June 2016

May was the fourth consecutive month in which an increase was recorded in international grain prices, but they still remain below the level reached in the same period in 2015.

From the monthly report by the International Coffee Organization:

Coffee prices settled higher for the fourth consecutive month in May, but are still below their levels of this time last year, with Robusta prices leading the charge.

Global Coffee Prices - February 2016

March 2016

The coffee market stabilised slightly in February, but prices remain at very low levels.

From a report by the International Coffee Organization:

The coffee market stabilised slightly in February, but prices remain at very low levels. A lack of news regarding fundamentals with expectations of a large 2016/17 crop in Brazil have kept prices from maintaining any significant rally.

Coffee: Global Report up to April 2015

May 2015

Good grain inventory levels globally have kept prices relatively stable and low in April.

From a monthly report by the International Coffee Organization (ICO):

Coffee exports from Brazil reached a record level of 36.8 million bags in crop year 2014/15 (April-March), driven by domestic stocks and favored by a depreciation in the exchange rate.

Coffee: Global Report up to January 2015

February 2015

The climate in Brazil was the main factor affecting the behavior of the international price of the grain in January, starting the month high and closing at $143.43 per pound.

From the Coffee Market Report - January 2015 by the International Coffee Organization (ICO):

Dry weather in Brazil at the beginning of January spurred prices higher, with the daily price of the ICO composite indicator rising from 140.57 US cents/lb to a high of 155.40 by the middle of the month. However, forecasts of rain later in the month punctured this brief rally,causing the ICO composite to fall back down to 143.43 cents by the end of January.Nevertheless, overall rainfall levels in Brazil remain below average, with the development of the 2015/16 crop now at a crucial stage. Furthermore, an infestation of coffee berry borer has led to a state of phytosanitary emergency being declared in the states of São Paulo and Espírito Santo.

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