Post-Quarantine Consumption Patterns

Once the Central American economies begin to return to normal, as the restriction and quarantine measures that have been taken to prevent the spread of the covid-19 are relaxed, household consumption patterns will have changed significantly.

Wednesday, March 25, 2020

For example, the demand for meals out of home will decrease by about 7% from the levels reported prior to the crisis.

Through a demand-income sensitivity model developed by CentralAmericaData's Trade Intelligence Unit, variations in household demand for different goods and services can be projected as the most critical phases in the spread of the covid-19 are overcome and measures to restrict mobility in the region's countries are gradually lifted.

For this analysis, it is assumed that quarantine and mobility restriction measures will be extended for a period of two months.

For example, when analyzing the potential demand for electronic equipment, it is estimated that once the quarantine period is over, households in Central America will reduce their spending on cellular phones and their accessories by about 4%.

When the economies begin to normalize their commercial activity, demand for air transport services could contract by 8%, as compared to the sales levels recorded prior to the Covid-19 crisis.

For the automotive industry, it is expected that demand for tuning, alignment and balancing services will also be affected in the coming months, as Central American households are expected to decrease by more than 3% in the purchase of this type of service.

The "Information System: Covid-19 and Business Outlook", is helping our clients to understand and measure the impact that the crisis will have on the demand for goods and services of companies in all sectors, with details such as the financial strength of customers and suppliers of each economic activity, which allows us to forecast which of them could face more difficulties in the coming months.

Click here to request access to this report.



More on this topic

El Salvador: Post-Confinement Consumption Level

April 2020

When the local economy begins to return to normal, as isolation and mobility restrictions are relaxed, demand for health insurance is estimated to fall by 7%.

Using a demand/income sensitivity model developed by the Trade Intelligence Unit of CentralAmericaData, it is possible to project the variations in demand by Salvadoran households for different goods and services as the most critical phases of the spread of the covid-19 are overcome and the measures restricting mobility in the country are lifted.

Honduras: Forecast of New Consumption Levels

April 2020

When the local economy begins to return to the new normality, as isolation and mobility restrictions are relaxed, it is estimated that the demand for electricity by Honduran households will have decreased by 11%.

Using a demand/income sensitivity model developed by the Trade Intelligence Unit of CentralAmericaData, it is possible to project the variations in demand by Honduran households for different goods and services as the most critical phases of the spread of covid-19 are overcome and the measures restricting mobility in the country are lifted.

Nicaragua: Consumption Outlook

April 2020

Once the economy begins to return to normal, as the phases of the pandemic are overcome in the country, it is estimated that the demand for meals outside the home will have decreased by 13%.

Using a demand/income sensitivity model developed by CentralAmericaData's Trade Intelligence Unit, variations in demand by Nicaraguan households for different goods and services can be projected as the most critical phases of the spread of covid-19 are overcome and restrictive measures are lifted in the country.

Panama: Outlook for Consumption

April 2020

Once the economy begins to return to normal, as isolation and mobility restrictions are relaxed, household consumption patterns will have changed significantly.

Using a demand/income sensitivity model developed by the Trade Intelligence Unit of CentralAmericaData, it is possible to project the variations in Panamanian household demand for different goods and services as the most critical phases in the spread of covid-19 are overcome and the measures restricting mobility in the country are lifted.

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