Possible scenarios for Guatemala in the face of the global financial crisis

The Guatemalan economy is not exempt from the after-effects of the American financial crisis; expectations are that it will affect exports, remittances and tourism.

Thursday, October 2, 2008

The US is Guatemala's main trading partner; 41% of exports are destined to the American market. In this context, what would be the scenario for Guatemala? What impact will it have on the economy?

elPeriodico turned to two analysts to find answers to those questions: Miguel Arturo Gutierrez, from CABI, and Carlos Gonzalez, from Asies.

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Economic Activity Continues to Stagnate in Guatemala

September 2013

In July the MIEA increased by 2.8%, down from 3.19% registered in the same period of 2012.

The growth of the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (MIEA) observed in July recorded only a slight increase of 2.8% when compared to the amount recorded in June which was an increase of 2.67%. However when compared to the same period in 2012, the stagnation is much more clear, since the index was then at 3.19%.

The Perfect Storm

May 2009

Guatemala is experiencing a crisis with vectors that feed each other reciprocally and which can lead to a disastrous scenario of "the storm of the century."

Economic crisis. Political crisis and violence. Social crisis.

Miguel Gutiérrez, an analyst for Central America Business Intelligence (CABI), wrote: "Guatemala is facing conditions that could have similarities with the novel “The Perfect Storm.” The hope is that Guatemalan sailors can reach a different conclusion than that of the novel, in terms of the issues that are related to the economic crisis—although in this area it is already a little late—and the political as well as the social crises to come."

According to analysts Guatemala's economy is still safe

September 2008

Guatemalan analysts agree that the country will not receive a direct impact from the international financial crisis.

Carlos Gonzalez, an economist from the Association of Investigations and Social Studies, affirmed that he does not foresee any direct impact, however he said that this could happen if the US economy continues to slip and therefore affect Guatemalan exports, remittances and employment.

Guatemala: Modest growth anticipated for 2008

August 2008

The Association for Investigation and Social Studies (ASIES) carried out a moderate study of the local economy.

ASIES analyst, Carlos Gonzalez, pointed out that the unfavorable external climate resulting from the financial crisis, and the high price of oil and food - that started in 2006 and worsened in 2007, began to affect production activities during first semester of this year.

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