As a result of the economic slowdown and the imbalance in public finances, Costa Rica faces a complex and high-risk future, in which the margins for action and maneuver will be increasingly limited.
Thursday, November 14, 2019
The State of the Nation 2019 report explains that the economic slowdown and imbalance in public finances created a scenario of great complexity and risk, both economic and political, which aggravated the structural weaknesses or "blind spots" of the national development style.
"... The margins for action to confront this situation have narrowed. In effect, fiscal problems prevent a reactivation based on greater public spending and investment, the confidence of consumers and businessmen has decreased to minimum levels and a growing citizen skepticism towards democracy reduces the 'political reserve' of good will so that the population assumes sacrifices or postpones their demands," the document states.
The forecasts are not clear for Costa Rica, because the document affirms that "... in an unexpected way -given the situation of party fragmentation and weakness in the Government's support bases-, the Executive and Legislative branches articulated responses that maintained economic, social and political stability. The outcome of this conjuncture is, nowadays, of reserved prognosis, and the situation, delicate and fluid."
As of September 2019, "... the economic downturn continues and is hitting certain regions and sectors especially hard. Faced with this scenario, the State has little room for maneuver to reactivate the economy, as the chronic imbalance in its finances limits its ability to stimulate aggregate demand through increased spending and investment, including the provision of new resources for productive development policies. This imbalance leaves no choice but to borrow and, in addition, imposes limitations on the management of public debt, which increase the cost of financing and generate additional risks."
"Growth remains susceptible to adverse shocks to global growth, economic and socio-political stress in Nicaragua, the continued weakness in consumer and business confidence, and uncertainty regarding the implementation of the fiscal reform.”
After the slowdown in growth between 2017 and early 2019, the economy has recovered since mid-2019, as a result of a rebound in services, agriculture and manufacturing, which produced an estimated 2.1% growth in 2019, reported the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The State of the Nation 2018 Report explains that during 2017 and the first months of 2018 the progress of Costa Rica's economy has been adverse and, in the short term, the prospects for economic opportunities, solvency and stability are negative.
Most of the drivers of Costa Rica's economy have declined in recent months, resulting in Costa Rica going through a period of multiple economic and political risks.
According to Fitch Ratings the reelection of Daniel Ortega as president of Nicaragua means stability in the country's economic policies.
EDITORIAL
Stability and economic and political continuity is what Fitch Ratings envisages for Nicaragua after the outcome of the presidential elections last Sunday, in which President Daniel Ortega was declared the winner, with 70% of the vote, according to a report by the Supreme Electoral Council.
Increased borrowing costs, a disincentive to foreign investment and distrust of economic performance, are part of the expected scenario if public debt growth is not controlled.
Prensalibre.com reports that "... The draft budget for 2015 presented by the Ministry of Finance, amounting to $9.250 million (Q71 thousand 840.8 million), contemplates taking on new debt of about $2 billion (Q15 billion), of which $1.6 billion (Q12 thousand 334 million) came from bonds and loans. "