Nicaragua: Risk Rating Continues So Far

Standard & Poor's warned that if in the coming months the political environment worsens or access to local and external financing deteriorates again, the debt note could suffer further deterioration.

Tuesday, November 12, 2019

In November 2018, the agency reduced from B to B the rating of Nicaragua's foreign currency debt with a negative outlook, arguing that the country's fiscal and financial profiles have weakened at that time.

After a year ago it was decided to downgrade the rating, on November 8, 2019 Standard & Poor's reported that they reviewed Nicaragua's economic outlook and this went from negative to stable, but threats remain for a downgrade in the rating.

The report explains that "... The stable outlook balances the recent stabilization of liquidity and continued access to internal and external financing for the government with lasting political uncertainty, severe economic contraction and weaknesses in the financial sector. We expect the government to implement additional adjustments to monetary and fiscal policy, if necessary, to avoid further erosion of liquidity in the financial system and possible loss of foreign exchange reserves.

We could downgrade in the next 12 to 24 months if Nicaragua's access to domestic and foreign financing deteriorates again, or if worsening political dynamics exert greater pressure on the exchange rate, undermining domestic confidence and damaging the domestic financial system.

See full report (in Spanish).

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Threats to Risk Rating

July 2019

Institutional problems and lower levels of economic growth compared to other countries with the same risk rating, could cause in the future a degradation of Guatemala's debt rating.

Although in its last evaluation Moody's decided to keep Guatemala's credit rating at Ba1 with a stable outlook, arguing that the economy reports stable growth, and that a prudent management of monetary and fiscal policy has been made, there are some threats for the rating to degrade.

Guatemala's Risk Rating Confirmed

October 2018

Arguing a moderate fiscal deficit, low level of public debt and an improvement in the country's external position, Standard & Poor´s kept the country's credit risk rating at BB-.

From the press release of the Banco de Guatemala:

October 31, 2018. The risk rating agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P) confirmed the rating of credit risk for Guatemala in BB- and maintained the stable outlook on Monday, October 29th.

Fitch downgrades sovereign rating to B+

July 2015

The agency said the growing fiscal deficit, low economic growth, political polarization and weak business confidence, were the triggers for the downgrading of long-term debt.

Fitch Ratings-New York-09 July 2015: Fitch Ratings has downgraded El Salvador's long-term foreign and local currency IDRs to 'B+' from 'BB-'.

Fitch Downgrades Mexico to 'BBB'

November 2009

Fitch downgraded Mexico's Issuer Default Rating (IDR) from 'BBB+' to 'BBB' in foreign currency and from 'A-' to 'BBB+' in domestic currency.

Both ratings have a 'Stable' outlook. Additionally, the country's ceiling was reduced to 'A-' from 'A'.

Fitch downgraded Mexico's ratings because the country's fiscal situation has gotten worse with the financial crisis and a reduction in Mexican oil production.

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