Slight Improvement in Confidence in the Economy

The Confidence Index in Economic Activity in Guatemala registered a year-on-year fall of 33% in July of this year and in August a 20% drop was registered, compared to the same period last year.

Tuesday, September 18, 2018

The most recent Economic Expectations Survey prepared by Banco de Guatemala, forecasts an inflationary rhythm of 3.90% for August, 4.01% for September and 4.03% for October 2018. As for December 2018 and 2019, the Panel foresees an inflationary rhythm of 4.07% and 4.22%, in that order. In addition, for a horizon of 12 and 24 months (August 2019 and August 2020) the Panel forecasts an inflationary rhythm of 4.07% and 4.33%, respectively.

The document details that the Real Gross Domestic Product is estimated to register growth of 2.9% in 2018 and 3.1% in 2019. Compared to the July survey, the Panel's forecast for 2018 decreased 0.1 percentage points (3.0% in the previous survey), while for 2019 it did not change.

The report concludes that in August 2018, the level of the Economic Activity Confidence Index stood at 35.42 points, 13.34% higher than the amount registered in July 2018 (31.25 points) and lower by 20.31% compared to the level recorded in August 2017 (44.45 points).

See full report (In Spanish).

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More on this topic

Confidence in the Economy Continues to Decline

August 2018

In line with the trend seen since last year, in July 2018, the Confidence Index of Economic Activity in Guatemala fell by 33% with respect to the same month in 2017.

The latest Economic Expectations Survey prepared by Banco de Guatemala forecasts an inflationary rhythm of 4.19% for July, 4.22% for August and 4.36% for September 2018. As for December 2018 and 2019, the Panel foresees an inflationary rhythm of 4.45% and 4.43%, in that order. In addition, for a horizon of 12 and 24 months (July 2019 and July 2020), the Panel forecasts an inflationary rhythm of 4.26% and 4.36%, respectively. 

Economic Expectations Continue to Decline

July 2018

Reinforcing the trend reported since last year, in June 2018, the Confidence Index of Economic Activity in Guatemala fell by 36% compared to the same month in 2017.

In the most recent Economic Expectations Survey conducted by the Banco de Guatemala, an inflationary rhythm of 4.25% for June, 4.24% for July and 4.37% for August 2018 is forecastAs for December 2018 and 2019, the Panel foresees an inflationary rhythm of 4.47% for both years. In addition, for a horizon of 12 and 24 months (June 2019 and June 2020) the Panel forecasts an inflationary rhythm of 4.35% and 4.43%, respectively. 

Economic Expectations in Free Fall

June 2018

In line with the decreasing trend that has been reported since last year, in May 2018, the Confidence Index of Economic Activity in Guatemala fell by 42% compared to the same month in 2017.

According to a survey carried out by Banco de Guatemala, an inflationary rhythm of 4.09% is forecast for May, 4.12% for June and 4.09% for July 2018. Regarding expectations for the end of the year, the consulted businessmen expect December to close with inflation of 4.50%. In addition, for a horizon of 12 and 24 months (May 2019 and May 2020), the Panel forecasts an inflationary rhythm of 4.31% and 4.48%, respectively. 

Guatemala: No Rebound in Economic Expectations

March 2018

Following the downward trend registered since last year, in February 2018 the Confidence Index of Economic Activity fell by 38% compared to the same month in 2017.

According to the survey carried out by Banco de Guatemala, an inflationary rhythm of 4.7% is forecast for February, 4.6% for March and 4.6% for April 2018. As for December 2018 and 2019, the Panel foresees an inflationary rhythm of 4.6% and 4.7%, in that order.  In addition, in a forecast for 12 and 24 months (February 2019 and February 2020) the Panel foresees an inflationary rhythm of 4.67% and 4.56%, respectively.

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