Leading Rate Remains at 2.75%

For the Banco de Guatemala the behavior of several short term indicators follows the prognosis, the institution decided to keep the monetary policy rate without changes.

Thursday, April 25, 2019

From the Banco de Guatemala press release:

Guatemala, April 25, 2019. The Monetary Board, in its session held on April 24, based on the integral analysis of the external and internal economic situation, after evaluating the Inflation Risks Balance, decided to keep the level of the leading interest rate of the monetary policy at 2.75%.

The Monetary Board, in the external environment, considered that the economic growth projections worldwide, for the present year as well as for the following one, reflect a moderation in the rhythm of economic activity in the majority of the advanced economies and in some of the emerging and developing market economies, in an environment in which the downward risks and uncertainty have intensified. Additionally, it was indicated that the prognosis of the median oil price for 2019 and for 2020, continue evidencing a moderately growing tendency.

The Monetary Board, internally, highlighted that the behavior of several short-term indicators of the economic activity (the Monthly Economic Activity index, family remittances, importations, the execution of public expense, the monetary aggregates and the banking credit to the private sector) continue to show a dynamic behavior congruent with the range of economic growth estimated for the present year (between 3.0% and 3.8%). Furthermore, it was reiterated that the prognosis and inflation expectations continue to be within the tolerance margin of the established goal (4.0% +/- 1 percentage point), for 2019 as well as for 2020.

The Monetary Board declared that it will continue giving close follow up to the evolution of the main economic indicators, external as well as internal, that can affect the general level of prices and, consequently, the inflation expectations.

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Banco de Guatemala decided to keep the monetary policy rate at 2.75%, arguing that several short-term indicators of the economic activity show a dynamism congruent with the projected range of economic growth.

Other reasons to keep the leading rate without variants is that the prognosis and inflation expectations, for 2019 as well as for 2020, are located within the tolerance limit of the goal (4% +/- 1%), according to the Banco de Guatemala.