International Price of Coffee Falls 21%

The future price fell to $169 from $215, the maximum price reached in April, after it was proven that the damage to crops caused by drought in Brazil was not as severe as anticipated.

Thursday, June 5, 2014

Contrary to what was estimated a few months ago, the damage done to the coffee plantations in Brazil was not so serious as tol drastically affect the final production of the 2013-2014 harvest. Because of this, analysts believe that prices will tend to fall in the medium term, in response to a global supply that is higher than projected.

Bloomberg reports that "future prices have plummeted 21% since the peak reached in April, partly due to excess stock in the United States which helped minimize the impact of lower global production caused by drought in Brazil. Supplies this year could reach 50.5 million bags, estimates Mercon Group, exceeding estimates by the U.S. government in May of 49.5 million".

"The forecast for higher production 'suggests that the damage was not as significant as expected,' said Boyd Cruel, a senior analyst at Vision Financial Markets in Chicago. 'Also we are in the middle of the harvest and conditions are adequate, unchanged.'"

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From the monthly report by the International Coffee Organization:

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Coffee: Global Report up to January 2015

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From the Coffee Market Report - January 2015 by the International Coffee Organization (ICO):

Dry weather in Brazil at the beginning of January spurred prices higher, with the daily price of the ICO composite indicator rising from 140.57 US cents/lb to a high of 155.40 by the middle of the month. However, forecasts of rain later in the month punctured this brief rally,causing the ICO composite to fall back down to 143.43 cents by the end of January.Nevertheless, overall rainfall levels in Brazil remain below average, with the development of the 2015/16 crop now at a crucial stage. Furthermore, an infestation of coffee berry borer has led to a state of phytosanitary emergency being declared in the states of São Paulo and Espírito Santo.

Coffee Prices Reach $215

April 2014

Volcafé, one of the largest traders in the world, has announced that its production will be 10% lower than the previous season, due to the effects of drought in Brazil.

After fluctuating for 4 weeks, the price of contracts with terms of one month for the arabica variety rose to $215 on April 23rd.

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