Honduras: Low Economic Outlook

During June, the Confidence Index of Economic Activity registered a 13% decrease with respect to May, where 49% is due to the result of the current confidence index and 51% to future activity.

Friday, July 5, 2019

From the Central Bank of Honduras report:

In the opinion of the people consulted, in June 2019, the year-on-year inflation would be at 5.12% and for the closing of 2019 it would be 5.03% (4.84% in the survey of the previous month); meanwhile, it is estimated that for June 2020 (within 12 months) it would be at 5.00% and to December of the same year would reach 5.04%.

Regarding the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the informants consider a quarterly variation of 1.0% for the second quarter of 2019, projection lower to the observed in the survey of the previous month (1.1%); also indicated that for the third quarter of the current year this would be at 1.1%.

The consulted forecast that the level of the Monetary Policy Rate (TPM) would be at 5.75% in June of this year and to December 2019 it would be at 5.77% (5.78% in the survey of the previous month). The median for the mentioned periods is of 5.75%.

The Confidence Index of Economic Activity was of 58.3 points for the month analyzed (66.6 points in May 2019), where 48.9% is explained by the result of the confidence index of the current economic activity and 51.1% by the future activity (46.9% and 53.1% in the survey of the previous month).

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More on this topic

Economic Expectations Improve to February 2020

March 2020

During February in Honduras, the Economic Activity Confidence Index registered a 15% increase compared to that reported in January 2020.

The informants said that the main macroeconomic variables are within the current Monetary Program, highlighting the strength of the U.S. economy and its effect on Honduras, mainly in attracting family remittances, explains the Central Bank report.

Honduras: Economic Expectations Not Improving

August 2019

In July, the Confidence Index of Economic Activity registered a 17% drop with respect to May, where again 49% is explained by the result of the current confidence index and 51% by future activity.

The consulted ones indicated that the potential negative impact of the unfavorable external conditions and the fall of prices of some products of exportation in the evolution of the national economy, as well as aspects related to the climate of businesses and its incidence in the new investments, informed the Central Bank of Honduras (BCH).

Honduras: Economic Expectations up to April 2019

May 2019

During the fourth month of the year, GDP growth at the end of 2019 was forecast at 3.6%, and by 2020 the variation is expected to be 3.9%.

From the Central Bank of Honduras report:

According to those surveyed, in April 2019 the year-on-year inflation would reach 4.24% and by the end of the year are expected to be at 4.52% (4.56% in the survey of the previous month).

Honduras: Economic Expectations for February – 2019

March 2019

During the second month of the year, GDP growth at the end of 2019 was forecast at 3.8%, and by 2020 the variation is expected to be 4.2%.

In February 2019, the Index of Confidence in Economic Activity was 63.5 points (63.1 in the previous month), where 46% is explained by the result of current economic activity and 54% by future activity, explains the Central Bank of Honduras.

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