Honduras: Economic Expectations for February – 2019

During the second month of the year, GDP growth at the end of 2019 was forecast at 3.8%, and by 2020 the variation is expected to be 4.2%.

Friday, March 15, 2019

In February 2019, the Index of Confidence in Economic Activity was 63.5 points (63.1 in the previous month), where 46% is explained by the result of current economic activity and 54% by future activity, explains the Central Bank of Honduras.

The document reviews that "... According to the opinion of the informants, in February 2019 the year-on-year inflation would be 3.97% and for December of the current year are expected to be at 4.40%, lower expectation to the reported in the survey of the previous month (4.57%). Also, they forecast that within 12 months (February 2020), the year-on-year inflation would be at 4.42%, and at the close of the same year at 4.69%. These expectations remain within the tolerance range established in the Revision of the 2018-2019 Monetary Program (4.0% ± 1.0 percentage point).

Regarding the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the informants forecast a 0.8% variation for the first and second quarter of 2019 (0.8% and 1.0%, respectively, in the survey made in the previous month).

The interviewees consider that the year-on-year variation of the Nominal Exchange Rate (NER) in February 2019 would be of 3.44% and for December of this year could be of 2.45% (2.57% in the survey made in January 2019). Also, in a 12-month panorama (February 2020) the expected year on year depreciation would be at 2.75% and in December 2020 at 2.71% (2.83% in the survey of the previous month).
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More on this topic

Economic Expectations Improve to February 2020

March 2020

During February in Honduras, the Economic Activity Confidence Index registered a 15% increase compared to that reported in January 2020.

The informants said that the main macroeconomic variables are within the current Monetary Program, highlighting the strength of the U.S. economy and its effect on Honduras, mainly in attracting family remittances, explains the Central Bank report.

Honduras: Low Economic Outlook

July 2019

During June, the Confidence Index of Economic Activity registered a 13% decrease with respect to May, where 49% is due to the result of the current confidence index and 51% to future activity.

From the Central Bank of Honduras report:

In the opinion of the people consulted, in June 2019, the year-on-year inflation would be at 5.12% and for the closing of 2019 it would be 5.03% (4.84% in the survey of the previous month); meanwhile, it is estimated that for June 2020 (within 12 months) it would be at 5.00% and to December of the same year would reach 5.04%.

Honduras: Economic Expectations up to April 2019

May 2019

During the fourth month of the year, GDP growth at the end of 2019 was forecast at 3.6%, and by 2020 the variation is expected to be 3.9%.

From the Central Bank of Honduras report:

According to those surveyed, in April 2019 the year-on-year inflation would reach 4.24% and by the end of the year are expected to be at 4.52% (4.56% in the survey of the previous month).

Low Business Confidence at the Beginning of the Year

February 2019

After December 2018, the Confidence in Economic Activity Index in Guatemala reported an 8% year-on-year increase, in January the variation was -3% regarding the same month in 2017.

The Bank of Guatemala Report summarizes that "... An inflationary rhythm of 3.34% is forecast for January, 3.47% for February and 3.56% for March 2019.

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