Honduras: Economic Expectations Still Falling

In August, the Index of Confidence in Economic Activity registered a 7% decrease with respect to the previous month, a drop that complements the inter-monthly drop reported in July of this year, which was 17%.

Tuesday, September 17, 2019

According to those consulted, factors such as the lack of political consensus, weakening of institutional credibility and the social panorama are elements that affect the business environment, reported the Central Bank of Honduras (BCH).

The document states that "... Regarding the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), analysts forecast a quarterly variation of 0.7% for the third quarter of 2019 (0.8% in the survey of the previous month); in addition, they project a 0.8% expansion for the fourth quarter of the current year (equal to that planned in the survey of July 2019).

In the opinion of those consulted, in August 2019, the year-on-year inflation would be at 4.69% and by the close of 2019 it would be 4.81% (4.94% in the July 2019 survey); also, they foresee that for August 2020 (next 12 months) it could be at 4.88% and by the close of that year they foresee that it would reach 4.98%.

In August 2019, the Confidence Index of Economic Activity was 44.9 points (48.3 points in July 2019), where 40.2% is explained by the result of the confidence index of current economic activity and 59.8% by future activity (47.6% and 52.4% in the survey of the previous month). According to those consulted, the development of infrastructure projects, the relative macroeconomic stability and the signing of the Stand-By Agreement with the International Monetary Fund could motivate the entry of new investors; highlighting that the proximity of Morazán Week and the Christmas season could help to boost consumption. However, factors such as the lack of political consensus, weakening of institutional credibility and the social panorama are pointed out as elements that worsen the business climate
.

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More on this topic

Strong Rebound in Business Confidence

November 2019

In October of this year the Index of Confidence in Economic Activity in Guatemala reported an 18% growth with respect to the same month in 2018, reinforcing the upward trend that has been registered since July 2019.

Entrepreneurs forecast an inflation rate of 3.50% for October, 3.81% for November and 3.94% for December 2019.

Honduras: Economic Expectations Not Improving

August 2019

In July, the Confidence Index of Economic Activity registered a 17% drop with respect to May, where again 49% is explained by the result of the current confidence index and 51% by future activity.

The consulted ones indicated that the potential negative impact of the unfavorable external conditions and the fall of prices of some products of exportation in the evolution of the national economy, as well as aspects related to the climate of businesses and its incidence in the new investments, informed the Central Bank of Honduras (BCH).

Honduras: Economic Expectations up to April 2019

May 2019

During the fourth month of the year, GDP growth at the end of 2019 was forecast at 3.6%, and by 2020 the variation is expected to be 3.9%.

From the Central Bank of Honduras report:

According to those surveyed, in April 2019 the year-on-year inflation would reach 4.24% and by the end of the year are expected to be at 4.52% (4.56% in the survey of the previous month).

Honduras: Economic Expectations for February – 2019

March 2019

During the second month of the year, GDP growth at the end of 2019 was forecast at 3.8%, and by 2020 the variation is expected to be 4.2%.

In February 2019, the Index of Confidence in Economic Activity was 63.5 points (63.1 in the previous month), where 46% is explained by the result of current economic activity and 54% by future activity, explains the Central Bank of Honduras.

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