Honduras: Economic Expectations Not Improving

In July, the Confidence Index of Economic Activity registered a 17% drop with respect to May, where again 49% is explained by the result of the current confidence index and 51% by future activity.

Tuesday, August 27, 2019

The consulted ones indicated that the potential negative impact of the unfavorable external conditions and the fall of prices of some products of exportation in the evolution of the national economy, as well as aspects related to the climate of businesses and its incidence in the new investments, informed the Central Bank of Honduras (BCH).

The document reviews that "... According to the responses of the informants, the year-on-year inflation would be of 4.84% for July 2019 and for December of this year they estimate it to be at 4.94% (5.03% in the June 2019 survey). They also forecast that for July 2020 it will be at 4.92% and up to December of the same year at 5.04%, expectation equal to the reported in the survey of the previous month.

Regarding the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), those surveyed estimate for the third quarter of 2019 a quarterly growth of 0.8% (1.1% in the survey conducted in June last year); likewise, they project an expansion of 0.8% for the fourth quarter of the current year. Regarding the annual variation of GDP, analysts' expectations indicate that it could be at 3.5% by 2019 and 3.8% by 2020 (3.5% and 3.7%, in that order, in the survey conducted in the previous month).
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Honduras: Low Economic Outlook

July 2019

During June, the Confidence Index of Economic Activity registered a 13% decrease with respect to May, where 49% is due to the result of the current confidence index and 51% to future activity.

From the Central Bank of Honduras report:

In the opinion of the people consulted, in June 2019, the year-on-year inflation would be at 5.12% and for the closing of 2019 it would be 5.03% (4.84% in the survey of the previous month); meanwhile, it is estimated that for June 2020 (within 12 months) it would be at 5.00% and to December of the same year would reach 5.04%.

Honduras: Economic Expectations up to April 2019

May 2019

During the fourth month of the year, GDP growth at the end of 2019 was forecast at 3.6%, and by 2020 the variation is expected to be 3.9%.

From the Central Bank of Honduras report:

According to those surveyed, in April 2019 the year-on-year inflation would reach 4.24% and by the end of the year are expected to be at 4.52% (4.56% in the survey of the previous month).

Honduras: Economic Outlook up to March 2019

April 2019

During the third month of the year, it was forecast that GDP growth at the end of 2019 will be at 3.9%, and by 2020 the variation is expected to be 4.1%.

In March 2019, the Index of Confidence in Economic Activity was 65% (63.5%), where 46.2% is because of the result of current economic activity and 53.8% because of future activity (46% and 54% in the previous month, respectively), reported the Central Bank of Honduras (BCH).

Honduras: Economic Expectations for February – 2019

March 2019

During the second month of the year, GDP growth at the end of 2019 was forecast at 3.8%, and by 2020 the variation is expected to be 4.2%.

In February 2019, the Index of Confidence in Economic Activity was 63.5 points (63.1 in the previous month), where 46% is explained by the result of current economic activity and 54% by future activity, explains the Central Bank of Honduras.

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