Guatemala's Fiscal Fragility

The International Monetary Fund is warning that adjustments are needed in order to increase tax revenues and reduce the state's fiscal deficit.

Friday, August 9, 2013

They note that "... the tax reform passed in 2012, which came into effect on January 1 this year, broadens the tax base and gives the government more tools to enforce fiscal and supervisory controls and eliminates tax exemptions and reduces corporate tax rates," noted an article in S21.com.gt.

Although this could raise up to 1.5% of GDP, the IMF recognizes that the reform will not solve the country's legal problems. They also note that public debt (24% today) is stable relative to other countries in the region, but a little high in terms of revenue (224%) when compared to other countries with a similar macroeconomic conditions.

"... Although public debt is low and stable, limited fiscal flexibility resulting from the reduction in tax revenue, is weakening public institutions and polarizing the political environment, constraining credit quality."

Moreover, the IMF stresses that inequality in income distribution and poverty put "Guatemala's ratings on one or two levels below investment grade."

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More on this topic

IMF on Costa Rica: "Unsustainable Fiscal Imbalance"

December 2016

The favorable conditions in the global economy allowed the country to grow by 4.25% in 2016, and administrative efforts to reduce the fiscal deficit were noted, however they will not prevent the debt /GDP ratio from growing.

From a press release by the IMF:

  • Costa Rica’s economy growing robustly, GDP expected to growth by 4.25% in 2016
  • More needs to be done to stabilize public debt levels
  • Key for government and Congress to reach consensus on VAT and income tax reforms proposals to help address fiscal imbalances

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IMF Completes Review of Honduras

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