Guatemalan Economy - July 2012

The monthly report of major national economic indicators has been released by the Foundation for the Development of Guatemala.

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Inflation
According to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at republic level, prepared by the National Statistics Institute (INE), in July of 2011, it registered a value of 105.22, compared to 104.25 recorded last month, making the monthly variation 0.95%, while the cumulative increase to 31 July was 5.22%, which means that the price level rose during the month of December last year. The rate of change (change in July 2011 compared with the same month of 2010) stood at 7.04%, higher than that observed in July 2010.The main determinants of inflation products were agricultural products.

At the regional level, the North (Alta Verapaz) showed a significantly higher CPI variation than the national average, more than doubling it, followed by the Peten region and north-western (Huehuetenango).Meanwhile, the metropolitan area recorded a variation of 0.76%, the lowest in the country.
Oil Price
The average international price at the end of July was $97.34 per barrel, representing an increase of 1.1% over the previous month's average price ($96.29). However, the trend during August has been downwards, reaching $85.69 per barrel on August 11.

IMAE
The Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMAE) prepared by the Bank of Guatemala, is an indicator that allows the pulse of economic activity in the current year to be tracked while the annual production figures (GDP) and cyclical changes being experienced are being calculated.

According to the latest estimate published in August by the BANGUAT, in June 2011, IMAE recorded a growth rate of 3.38%, showing a relatively stable trend over the past twelve months, in June 2010 the rate was recorded at 3.36%. During the first quarter, the IMAE had shown an upward trend, however at the end of the second half the trend has reversed, reducing the dynamism of economic activity.

External Sector
Foreign exchange earnings by way of remittances during the month of July 2011 were $349.83 million, representing a decrease of 9% compared to July 2010, which means that households receiving remittances in the country received $35 million less. The cumulative figure for the first seven months of the year was $2524.9 million, representing an increase of 6.5% compared to 2010.

The reference exchange rate shows a weighted average nominal appreciation of the Quetzal from earlier this year, which marked a record of Q8.01 for a dollar, while on August 12 it reached Q7.848, representing an appreciation of 2.1 %.

Historical development of exports
Between January and July 2011 there were exchange earnings from exports of $4,162 million, representing 24% more than recorded in the same period last year. According to figures from BANGUAT, exports show more dynamism compared to previous years. For example, compared to 2009, figures for this year show an increase of 45%, which confirms the renewed dynamism in exports. The graphs of foreign exchange earnings and FOB value of exports confirm this assertion.

Evolution of foreign exchange earnings from tourism
Foreign exchange earnings from tourism during the first half of the year are similar to the last two years. According to the BANGUAT, foreign exchange earnings from tourism and travel from January to June 2011 amounts to $560.4 million, while in the same period of 2010 it was $549.8 million, and in 2009 it was $572.5 million. The figure for 2011 is 9.1% lower than the peak during the decade, which was $616.7 million in 2008. The negative growth rates of the last three years are in contrast to the rates observed in the early years of the decade, which saw an average growth of about 15%.



More on this topic

Guatemala: Economic Bulletin March 2012

March 2012

Fundesa has released its monthly report of the main indicators of the national economy: inflation, oil, IMAE, external sector, exports, foreign exchange, and tax revenue.

Inflation
In February 2012 the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a variation of 5.17%, 0.07 percentage points lower than in February last year (5.24%).

Economy of Guatemala in December 2011

January 2012

A report has been released showing the leading economic indicators, focusing on December 2011.

Development Foundation of Guatemala FUNDESA

Inflation
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed an annual variation of 6.20% in December 2011, 0.81 percentage points higher than in the previous year (5.39%).

Economy of Guatemala in December 2011

December 2011

Monthly report from the Foundation for Development on the main indicators of the Guatemalan economy.

Inflation

According to the Consumer Price Index-CPI- at the level of the republic, developed by the National Statistics Institute INE, inflation showed a slight increase after two consecutive months of decline, since in November the CPI registered a value of 105.97, while in the previous month it was 105.74.

Guatemalan Economy November 2011

November 2011

The Development Foundation of Guatemala’s published its monthly report on the main indicators of the Guatemalan economy.

Inflation
According to the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) developed by the National Statistics Institute (INE in Spanish), inflation declined for the second consecutive month in October as the CPI registered a value of 105.74 as compared to 105.78 recorded the previous month.

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