Guatemala: No Rebound in Economic Expectations

Following the downward trend registered since last year, in February 2018 the Confidence Index of Economic Activity fell by 38% compared to the same month in 2017.

Monday, March 5, 2018

According to the survey carried out by Banco de Guatemala, an inflationary rhythm of 4.7% is forecast for February, 4.6% for March and 4.6% for April 2018. As for December 2018 and 2019, the Panel foresees an inflationary rhythm of 4.6% and 4.7%, in that order.  In addition, in a forecast for 12 and 24 months (February 2019 and February 2020) the Panel foresees an inflationary rhythm of 4.67% and 4.56%, respectively.

It is estimated that the Real Gross Domestic Product will register a growth of 3.1% in 2018 and 3.2% in 2019.  Compared to the January survey, the Panel's forecast did not register any change for 2018; while for 2019, it decreased 0.1 percentage points (3.3% in the previous survey). 

In February 2018, the level of the Economic Activity Confidence Index stood at 34.17 points, 14.25% lower than what was registered in January 2018 (39.85 points) and 38% lower than what was registered in February 2017 ( 55.00 points).

See full report (in Spanish). 

More on this topic

Slight Improvement in Confidence in the Economy

September 2018

The Confidence Index in Economic Activity in Guatemala registered a year-on-year fall of 33% in July of this year and in August a 20% drop was registered, compared to the same period last year.

The most recent Economic Expectations Survey prepared by Banco de Guatemala, forecasts an inflationary rhythm of 3.90% for August, 4.01% for September and 4.03% for October 2018. As for December 2018 and 2019, the Panel foresees an inflationary rhythm of 4.07% and 4.22%, in that order. In addition, for a horizon of 12 and 24 months (August 2019 and August 2020) the Panel forecasts an inflationary rhythm of 4.07% and 4.33%, respectively.

Confidence in the Economy Continues to Decline

August 2018

In line with the trend seen since last year, in July 2018, the Confidence Index of Economic Activity in Guatemala fell by 33% with respect to the same month in 2017.

The latest Economic Expectations Survey prepared by Banco de Guatemala forecasts an inflationary rhythm of 4.19% for July, 4.22% for August and 4.36% for September 2018. As for December 2018 and 2019, the Panel foresees an inflationary rhythm of 4.45% and 4.43%, in that order. In addition, for a horizon of 12 and 24 months (July 2019 and July 2020), the Panel forecasts an inflationary rhythm of 4.26% and 4.36%, respectively. 

Economic Expectations Continue to Deteriorate

April 2018

Continuing with the decreasing trend that has been reported since last year, in March 2018 the Confidence Index of Economic Activity fell by 30% with respect to the same month in 2017.

According to a survey carried out by Banco de Guatemala, an inflationary rhythm of 4.34% is forecast for March, 4.40% for April and 4.38% for May 2018. As for December 2018 and 2019, the Panel foresees an inflationary rhythm of 4.54% and 4,65%, in order. 

Guatemala: Economic Expectations at the End of 2017

January 2018

The Confidence Index of Economic Activity as of December 2017 was down 41% compared to the same month in 2016, reflecting a loss of confidence in the economy in the last year.

According to the economic expectations collected at the end of 2017, it is expected that 2018 will close with an inflationary rhythm of 4.5% and that the Real Gross Domestic Product will register a growth of 3.2%.  

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