Guatemala: No Rebound in Economic Expectations

Following the downward trend registered since last year, in February 2018 the Confidence Index of Economic Activity fell by 38% compared to the same month in 2017.

Monday, March 5, 2018

According to the survey carried out by Banco de Guatemala, an inflationary rhythm of 4.7% is forecast for February, 4.6% for March and 4.6% for April 2018. As for December 2018 and 2019, the Panel foresees an inflationary rhythm of 4.6% and 4.7%, in that order.  In addition, in a forecast for 12 and 24 months (February 2019 and February 2020) the Panel foresees an inflationary rhythm of 4.67% and 4.56%, respectively.

It is estimated that the Real Gross Domestic Product will register a growth of 3.1% in 2018 and 3.2% in 2019.  Compared to the January survey, the Panel's forecast did not register any change for 2018; while for 2019, it decreased 0.1 percentage points (3.3% in the previous survey). 

In February 2018, the level of the Economic Activity Confidence Index stood at 34.17 points, 14.25% lower than what was registered in January 2018 (39.85 points) and 38% lower than what was registered in February 2017 ( 55.00 points).

See full report (in Spanish). 

More on this topic

Economic Expectations Continue to Decline

July 2018

Reinforcing the trend reported since last year, in June 2018, the Confidence Index of Economic Activity in Guatemala fell by 36% compared to the same month in 2017.

In the most recent Economic Expectations Survey conducted by the Banco de Guatemala, an inflationary rhythm of 4.25% for June, 4.24% for July and 4.37% for August 2018 is forecastAs for December 2018 and 2019, the Panel foresees an inflationary rhythm of 4.47% for both years. In addition, for a horizon of 12 and 24 months (June 2019 and June 2020) the Panel forecasts an inflationary rhythm of 4.35% and 4.43%, respectively. 

Economic Expectations Continue to Deteriorate

April 2018

Continuing with the decreasing trend that has been reported since last year, in March 2018 the Confidence Index of Economic Activity fell by 30% with respect to the same month in 2017.

According to a survey carried out by Banco de Guatemala, an inflationary rhythm of 4.34% is forecast for March, 4.40% for April and 4.38% for May 2018. As for December 2018 and 2019, the Panel foresees an inflationary rhythm of 4.54% and 4,65%, in order. 

Guatemala: Economic Expectations Continue to Decline

February 2018

As of January 2018, the Confidence Index of Economic Activity fell 31% with respect to the same month in 2017, reinforcing the downward trend registered since last year.

During the first month of the year, economic expectations varied compared to those collected in December 2017, as 2018 is expected to close with an inflationary rhythm of 4.9% (last December the expectation stood at 4.5%) and with the Real Gross Domestic Product registering growth of 3.1% (in the last month of 2017 an increase was estimated for 2018 of 3.2%). 

Guatemala: Economic Expectations at the End of 2017

January 2018

The Confidence Index of Economic Activity as of December 2017 was down 41% compared to the same month in 2016, reflecting a loss of confidence in the economy in the last year.

According to the economic expectations collected at the end of 2017, it is expected that 2018 will close with an inflationary rhythm of 4.5% and that the Real Gross Domestic Product will register a growth of 3.2%.  

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