Guatemala: Growth Projections Improve

The behavior of credit to the private sector, public spending, imports and remittances would explain the higher growth expected for the economy this year.

Friday, February 22, 2019

The Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) reported that this year's economic growth is projected to range between 3% and 3.8%, with a central value of 3.4%, up from the 3.1% reported during 2018.

You may be interested in "Economic Outlook for the New Year"

Regarding the behavior of the local economy at the beginning of the year, Sergio Recinos, president of Banguat, told Elperiodico.com.gt that "... In January, public spending increased because of the transfer of resources to the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) for the elections to be held in June, and for spending on education. But the trend is expected to continue in the following months as this is the last year of this administration."

The construction sector would be one of the economic activities that would drive growth in 2019. The article adds that "... Also, the implementation of the one-stop shop will accelerate the authorization of square meters of construction, which will have an impact this year."

According to forecasts by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), in 2019 Panama will be the economy with the highest growth in Central America, with a 5.6% expected rate. It would be followed by Honduras, with a 3.6% growth forecast for GDP, Guatemala with 3%, Costa Rica with 2.9% and El Salvador, with an increase of 2.4%. Only in Nicaragua is the economy expected to contract. According to ECLAC, GDP will fall by 2%.

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More on this topic

Guatemala's Economy: 2019 Would Be Better

January 2019

The growth of family remittances, the recovery of credit to the private sector and the upturn in investment in capital goods would determine a better economic performance this year.

In a forum organized by the Chamber of Industry of Guatemala, representatives of the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) and Central American Business Intelligence (CABI), agreed that this year the country's economy could register a better performance than in 2018.

Economic Outlook for the New Year

January 2019

Excluding Nicaragua, the economies of Central American countries are projected to increase 2%, however, for the business sector some of the expectations may be too optimistic.

The 5.6% growth estimate for Panama is too optimistic for the private sector, as no major changes are expected compared to 2018.

Guatemala: 2019 Better Than 2018?

December 2018

The Bank of Guatemala expects next year's economic growth to be better than in 2018, which would be caused by higher public spending and the growth of family remittances.

Authorities of the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) informed that the Guatemalan economy will close 2018 with a nearly 3% growth, however, for next year is expected that the increase in GDP will be in the range between 3% and 3.8%.

Guatemala: Economy to Grow between 3% and 3.8%

May 2018

Explained by the dynamics of economic activity and the flow of family remittances, the Central Bank estimates that this year the economy will grow between 3% and 3.8%.

According to the authorities at Banco de Guatemala (Banguat), by 2019 the expectation is that the economy will grow between 3.1% and 4.1%, and in relation to inflation for this year and next, it is expected that the Growth rate will remain close to 4%.

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