Guatemala: Economic Outlook for March 2017

The Bank of Guatemala has kept the lead monetary policy rate at 3%, arguing that high levels of uncertainty still persist in the external economic environment.

Thursday, March 23, 2017

From the report "Recent macroeconomic performance and prospects," by the Bank of Guatemala :

Global economic growth projections for 2017 and 2018 show that the recovery in economic activity will probably continue, albeit in an environment where high levels of uncertainty and downside risks prevail. Forecasts for international oil prices remain on the upside.

See also: "Appreciation of Quetzal Continues in Guatemala"

On the other hand, in the domestic environment, several short-term indicators (the Monthly Index of Economic Activity, remittances, public spending and foreign trade, mainly), are consistent with the annual economic growth forecast for 2017 (between 3.0% and 3.8%).  Forecasts and inflation expectations for both 2017 and 2018 are within the target. 

See full report by the Banguat. (In Spanish)

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More on this topic

Guatemala: Leading Rate Begins 2020 at 2.75%

February 2020

Arguing that the main economic indicators show a stable behavior, the Central Bank decided at the beginning of the year to maintain the level of the leading interest rate of the monetary policy at 2.75%.

From the Bank of Guatemala's statement:

February 20th, 2020. The Monetary Board, in its session celebrated on February 19, based on the integral analysis of the external and internal economic situation, after evaluating the Inflation Risks Balance, decided to keep the level of the leading interest rate of the monetary policy at 2.75%.

Guatemala: Leading Rate Remains at 2.75%

September 2019

Arguing that the economic activity reports a behavior attached to the forecasts of growth for 2019, the Central Bank decided to maintain in 2.75% the level of the leading interest rate of monetary policy.

The inflation forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are located within the tolerance margin of the goal established by the Monetary Board, was another of the arguments of the monetary authority to keep the reference rate without variations.

Leading Rate Begins 2019 with No Changes

February 2019

Banco de Guatemala decided to keep the monetary policy rate at 2.75%, arguing that several short-term indicators of the economic activity show a dynamism congruent with the projected range of economic growth.

Other reasons to keep the leading rate without variants is that the prognosis and inflation expectations, for 2019 as well as for 2020, are located within the tolerance limit of the goal (4% +/- 1%), according to the Banco de Guatemala.

Guatemala: Lider Rate Stays at 3%

April 2016

Despite noting that there are still some risks associated with global economic recovery, the Bank of Guatemala has decided to keep the monetary policy rate unchanged.

From a statement issued by the Bank of Guatemala:

The Monetary Board, based on a comprehensive analysis of the external and internal economic situation, after studying the Inflation Risks Balance, has decided to keep the level of the leading monetary policy interest rate at 3.00% .

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