Guatemala: Business Confidence Improves

After March 2019, the Confidence in Economic Activity Index reported a 6% y-o-y decrease, in April the variation was of 4% regarding the same month of 2018.

Monday, May 13, 2019

The report of the Banco de Guatemala explains that during April "... an inflationary rhythm of 4.26% was forecast for April and of 4.32% for May as well as for June 2019. Regarding December 2019 and 2020, the Panel foresees an inflationary rhythm of 4.38% and 4.46%, in that order. In addition, for a 12 and 24-month horizon (April 2020 and April 2021) the Panel forecasts an inflationary rhythm of 4.32% and 4.30%, respectively.

For businessmen, the Real Gross Domestic Product will register a 3.0% growth in 2019 and 3.2% in 2020. Compared to the March survey, the Panel's forecast for 2019 decreased 0.1 percentage points (3.1% in the previous survey); however, by 2020 there was no change (3.2% in the previous survey).

In April 2019, the level of the Confidence Index of Economic Activity was at 44.61 points, higher by 0.07% regarding the registered in March 2019 (44.58 points) and higher by 4.03% regarding the registered in April 2018 (42.88 points)
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Business Confidence Remains Down in 2019

March 2019

After January 2019 the Confidence in Economic Activity Index in Guatemala reported a 3% y-o-y decrease, in February the variation was of -8% regarding the same month of 2018.

The report of the Bank of Guatemala summarizes that during February "... An inflationary rhythm of 3.96% was forecast for February, 4.09% for March and 4.19% for April 2019.

Low Business Confidence at the Beginning of the Year

February 2019

After December 2018, the Confidence in Economic Activity Index in Guatemala reported an 8% year-on-year increase, in January the variation was -3% regarding the same month in 2017.

The Bank of Guatemala Report summarizes that "... An inflationary rhythm of 3.34% is forecast for January, 3.47% for February and 3.56% for March 2019.

Economic Expectations Continue to Deteriorate

April 2018

Continuing with the decreasing trend that has been reported since last year, in March 2018 the Confidence Index of Economic Activity fell by 30% with respect to the same month in 2017.

According to a survey carried out by Banco de Guatemala, an inflationary rhythm of 4.34% is forecast for March, 4.40% for April and 4.38% for May 2018. As for December 2018 and 2019, the Panel foresees an inflationary rhythm of 4.54% and 4,65%, in order. 

Guatemala: No Rebound in Economic Expectations

March 2018

Following the downward trend registered since last year, in February 2018 the Confidence Index of Economic Activity fell by 38% compared to the same month in 2017.

According to the survey carried out by Banco de Guatemala, an inflationary rhythm of 4.7% is forecast for February, 4.6% for March and 4.6% for April 2018. As for December 2018 and 2019, the Panel foresees an inflationary rhythm of 4.6% and 4.7%, in that order.  In addition, in a forecast for 12 and 24 months (February 2019 and February 2020) the Panel foresees an inflationary rhythm of 4.67% and 4.56%, respectively.

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