Following the downturn seen since mid-year, the index showing confidence in economic activity fell even further in November.
Friday, December 2, 2016
Perception of corruption cases and the execution of the government budget may be influencing perceptions of economic performance, which is also affected by factors such as fiscal issues, fuel prices, inflation, the exchange rate and interest rates.
Entrepreneurs are interested in the events that shape the country's situation and that could affect their future, as reflected in the Confidence Index of Economic Activity by the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat), which shows that the index began to lose momentum in June, after rising to the highest monthly value of the year in January. It has once again suffered a new annual reduction.
Elperiodico.com.gt reports that "...In January this year the index was 66.97 points, the highest achieved in 2016, in May it reached 61.67 and in August the result was 37.50 points, the lowest obtained. 2015 was an atypical period due to corruption scandals revealed in April, bringing the index to a level of 21.67 points in August, a result comparable with the data from 2009, when the international financial crisis occured."
"...The economist Fabian Pira believes that the low implementation of the government budget and some criticisms of corruption that have emerged has affected perceptions relating to the investment climate and the business landscape in the country."
The proportion of entrepreneurs who believe that the Guatemalan economy will not show better results in the next six months is growing.
In the midst of a political crisis generated by President Morales' attempt to expel the commissioner of the International Commission against Impunity and recent allegations of corruption involving the president himself, confidence in the business sector has been affected, as well as its perspectives on the course that the economy will follow in the short term.
The latest cases of political corruption revealed, the fiscal crisis and the poor economic situation have plunged business confidence to its lowest level since 2009.
The business sector is not only concerned about what has happened, but what could happen in the coming months, as reflected in the results of the Central Bank index which measures perceptions of economic agents regarding the business and investment climate in the country.
The Ninth Edition of the Deloitte Business Barometer shows a deterioration in view of the economic situation of the country for the next 12 months.
From a statement issued by Deloitte:
Summary of results
Recent macroeconomic performance and prospects
According to data collected during the ninth edition of Deloitte Business Barometer conducted in October and November, the results show a deterioration in the vision of entrepreneurs regarding the economy compared to May-14 survey.
The slow opening of the telecommunications market and the exchange rate are key factors in the decline in business confidence over the previous quarter.
• Perception and business confidence down for the second consecutive semester
• UCCAEP urges a national agenda to boost productive activities
español
6931
