Guatemala: Business Confidence Collapses

After the Economic Activity Confidence Index reported a 19% drop in March 2020, in April the situation worsened with a -43% year-on-year variation, a drop that agrees with the advance of the health crisis in the country.

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

In April 2020, the level of the Economic Activity Confidence Index stood at 32.64 points, 43.25% lower than that recorded in March 2020 (57.52 points) and fell by 26.83% compared to April 2019 (44.61 points), reported the Bank of Guatemala.

The Central Bank report states that "... The Panel estimates that the Real Gross Domestic Product will register a 0.2% reduction in 2020 and a 2.3% increase in 2021. Compared to the March survey, the Panel's forecast for 2020 decreased by 3.3 percentage points (3.1% in the previous survey) and for 2021 it decreased by 1.1 percentage points (3.4% in the previous survey).

The Panel forecasts a 2.10% inflationary rhythm for April, 2.32% for May and 2.69% for June 2020. As to December 2020 and 2021, the Panel forecasts an inflationary rhythm of 3.62% and 4.02%, in that order. In addition, for a period of 12 and 24 months (April 2021 and April 2022) the Panel forecasts an inflationary rhythm of 3.55% and 3.97%, respectively.
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More on this topic

Business Confidence Still Rising

March 2020

In February 2020, the Index of Confidence in Economic Activity in Guatemala reported a 64% growth compared to the same month last year, reinforcing the upward trend that has been registered since July 2019.

Businessmen forecast an inflationary rhythm of 3.25% for February, 3.36% for March and 3.38% for April 2020. As to December 2020 and 2021, the Panel forecasts an inflationary rhythm of 4.16% and 4.20%, in that order.

Business Confidence Not Rebound

April 2019

After in February 2019 the Confidence in Economic Activity Index in Guatemala reported a year-on-year decrease of 8%, in March the variation was of -6% regarding the same month of 2018.

The report of the Banco de Guatemala reports that during March "... an inflationary rhythm of 4.34% is forecast for March and 4.37% for April and May 2019.

Business Confidence Remains Down in 2019

March 2019

After January 2019 the Confidence in Economic Activity Index in Guatemala reported a 3% y-o-y decrease, in February the variation was of -8% regarding the same month of 2018.

The report of the Bank of Guatemala summarizes that during February "... An inflationary rhythm of 3.96% was forecast for February, 4.09% for March and 4.19% for April 2019.

Low Business Confidence at the Beginning of the Year

February 2019

After December 2018, the Confidence in Economic Activity Index in Guatemala reported an 8% year-on-year increase, in January the variation was -3% regarding the same month in 2017.

The Bank of Guatemala Report summarizes that "... An inflationary rhythm of 3.34% is forecast for January, 3.47% for February and 3.56% for March 2019.

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