Geopolitics and the Future of Central America

The next U.S. president is not yet known, but in the region it is expected that in an eventual new Trump administration, the focus will be on the recovery of the U.S. economy, while an eventual Biden administration would focus on countering corruption and illegal migration.

Thursday, November 5, 2020

Two days after Election Day took place, the United States is experiencing an atmosphere of tension and uncertainty, since because the results are closed, neither candidate can yet be declared the winner.

Being the United States the main commercial partner of Central America, the country of origin of most of the family remittances, source of foreign investment and emitter of tourists, the elections in that nation have great relevance for the region.

Although there are different opinions about the impact that the election of Republican candidate Trump or Democrat Biden will have on the region, there is a consensus that the Republican policy will be to strengthen the U.S. economy, which is in crisis due to the outbreak of covid-19, while the plans of an eventual Biden administration will be to counteract corruption and illegal migration, especially in the Northern Triangle.

Juan Carlos Paredes, economic analyst, told that "... there are sectors that are oriented towards a relationship with the Republican party, because of a more liberal issue of the economy. While the governments led by the Democratic Party have very similar behaviors in terms of the economy, in their foreign policy they lean towards issues related to corruption and illegal immigration."

According to Paredes "... The U.S. sees as a problem the cases of corruption that have impacted various sectors in recent years, in the sense that social and economic issues are not being addressed, nor the stable conditions of the country, which motivates people to migrate irregularly."

Nuria Marin, an international analyst, told that if Trump wins, it is expected that politics will focus on recovering the U.S. economy as soon as possible, a situation that is convenient for Costa Rica and the Central American region, since it is the most important commercial partner, the main source of tourists and direct foreign investment.

By 12:00 noon on November 5, several media projected 264 electoral votes for Biden and 214 for Trump. In order to be proclaimed a winner, either of the two candidates must add up to 270 electoral votes.

See's article "Trump vs. Biden: Will the Change in Command Impact the Economy and Trade in Guatemala" and's "What Will be the Impact of the U.S. Presidential Election in Costa Rica?" (both in Spanish.)

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