During 2018, Guatemala received $1.175 million in FDI, barely 0.5% more than the investment reported in 2017, mainly because of the political and legal uncertainty that ruled the country.
Tuesday, December 18, 2018
Figures from the Banco de Guatemala (Banguat) report that in the last five years, the country has gained $6,139 million in foreign direct investment (FDI), being 2014 the one that registered the highest year-on-year increase when reporting a 7% rate regarding 2013.
Regarding the reasons for the null growth of foreign investment, David Casasola, analyst at the Center for National Economic Research (Cien), explained to Prensalibre.com that "... the stagnation of investment flows was influenced by the political uncertainty experienced in the country this year, especially with the Executive-Cicig conflict. There were some messages that didn't convince investors and they decided to defer their capital."
According to the analyst of the Cien, the country missed the opportunity to attract more investment from the U.S., because during 2018 the U.S. economy went through a good time.
Acisclo Valladares Urruela, Minister of Economy, said that "... in general, the indicator is positive, despite the environment of uncertainty, decision-makers responded in an appropriate way in terms of capital. The evaluation we have is positive and every week we are attending investors from different sectors, who are interested in exploring the country.”
Regarding expectations for 2019, the Banguat report "Evaluation of Monetary, Exchange Rate and Credit Policy", details that expected FDI flows to grow 3% over 2018.
In this sense, the Guatemalan textile sector has optimistic expectations for 2019. Alejandro Ceballos, president of the Apparel and Textile Commission (Vestex), explains that "... several factories from Korea operating in Nicaragua, are looking for other countries to install their capital because of the political crisis."
Guatemalan businessmen assure that the change from Stable to Negative made by Fitch Ratings in the country's risk perspective should be taken seriously, since investments could stagnate.
On April 11, Fitch announced that it maintained its "BB" rating for long-term foreign currency debt default, but decided to modify the outlook because the country reflects political tension and greater uncertainty in agents, as well as a constant erosion in the government's low tax collection.
The exporters' guild estimates that the new year will be difficult for the country's economy, since there are multiple factors that threaten the growth of foreign sales.
The Association of Producers and Exporters of Nicaragua (APEN) reported that the expectation of year-on-year increase in export revenue for 2018 ranged between 6% and 10%, however, there was a 1% decrease.
Although some uncertainty is projected next year in Guatemala, because of the presidential and legislative elections scheduled for June, it is estimated that the economy will increase 3.2%.
According to the Center for National Economic Research (Cien), it is expected that in 2019 there will be some uncertainty derived from the changes in the three branches of government.
In the first six months of 2012 FDI amounted to $770 million, mainly devoted to the activities of energy, mining and textile industries.
In the first quarter FDI reached $405.9 million and $364.6 million in the second, surpassing the $523.5 million in the first half of last year, according to data from the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat).