Elections and Economic Uncertainty

On March 18, the political campaign for the General Elections in Guatemala officially began, but the legal inconveniences faced by some candidates cause doubts for the future.

Wednesday, March 20, 2019

Zury Ríos, Thelma Aldana and Sandra Torres are the three presidential candidates leading the voting intentions for the 2019 General Elections, but both Ríos and Aldana have had legal problems in their registration process, and Torres, already a registered candidate, was accused of illegal electoral financing. These cases have caught the public's attention and prevented them from knowing the concrete economic proposals.

David Casasola, analyst at the Center for National Economic Research (Cien), explained to Elperiodico.com.gt that "... The lack of clarity in knowing who will participate, the changes in the electoral rules and the ignorance of specific proposals are elements that generate uncertainty and make this electoral year an unusual process."

Casasola added that "... There is no clarity either in the aspects of economic policy that the government will promote during the last year of the mandate and that could have continuity in the next administration, each new government arrives and there is a clean slate. This reduces long-term certainty and creates more uncertainty."

For the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat), the structural reforms to increase potential GDP include the aspects of improvements in competitiveness, investment climate, increasing public and private investments, and increasing spending on human capital, issues that are still not discussed less than three months before the elections.

Greater medium-term economic growth requires an integrated approach, i.e., maintaining macro-financial stability, explains a presentation made by Banguat to local businessmen.

See presentation.

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One month before the presidential elections in Guatemala, the Constitutional Court decided to remove from the election Zury Ríos and Thelma Aldana, two of the candidates with the highest voting intentions among the population.

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Political Situation Affects Business Confidence

April 2019

For the Guatemalan private sector, the uncertainty that prevails in the country is because the details of the government programs of the political parties that will participate in the General Elections are not known until now.

Last March 18 officially began the political campaign for the General Elections in the country, but the legal inconveniences faced by some candidates for the presidency cause doubts in the future, since there is no clarity of who will participate in the process and the government plans of the candidates are not known in depth.

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