Economic Recovery: Which Sectors Are Winning?

Agriculture, Financial and Insurance Activities, and Real Estate Activities, are the sectors that in Guatemala and in the context of the economic reopening, have increased their growth forecasts for 2020.

Wednesday, October 14, 2020

In June, when mobility restrictions were severe in the country due to the outbreak of covid-19, the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) predicted that by the end of the year, Agriculture would grow by 1.1%, Financial and insurance activities by 2% and Real estate activities by 2.8%.

At the end of July, the government began to relax restrictions and economic activity began to recover.

Check out the "System for monitoring the markets and economic situation in the countries of Central America", developed by CentralAmericaData.

In this scenario of reopening the economy, the projections calculated in October have improved. According to Banguat, it is expected that Agriculture will grow 3%, Financial and Insurance Activities 5.3% and Real Estate Activities 3.3%.

It is expected that other economic sectors will have negative variations, however, they could improve at the end of the year.

Johny Gramajo, economic manager of Banguat, said to that in the case of the manufacturing industry, between June and October "... it was revised from a decrease of -3.7% to -0.5%, and it is explained by a better expectation in the external demand of oils and vegetable and animal fats, increase in the elaboration and conservation of meats, food products such as rice, noodles, which is associated to a domestic demand of these products."

The article adds that "... the activity of commerce and repair of vehicles that had a contraction of -3% and -2.4%, which is associated with the improvement of the activity of industry and agriculture that increases the commercialization of goods and services."

According to official figures, in May the Index of Economic Activity (IMAE) peaked at -11%, but during June, July and August, production contracted less, reporting falls of 8%, 5% and 2%, in that order.

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