Economic Growth Forecast Downwards

In Honduras, the Central Bank reduced the economic growth projection by the end of 2019 from 3.3% to 3.4%.

Friday, August 16, 2019

The main indicators of high-frequency economic conditions, such as the Monthly Economic Activity Index (IMAE), indicate a moderation in economic activity in relation to that observed in previous years, is one of the arguments of the Central Bank to review economic growth downwards.

The monetary authority specifies that "... explained by the deceleration in the growth of Manufacturing and Agriculture, which are being partially compensated by the good performance of the items of Financial Intermediation and Telecommunications.

In this context and in line with the evolution of the world economy, it is estimated that by the end of 2019 and 2020, the Honduran economy will show growth between 3.0% and 3.4%."

Regarding the inflation forecast for the next months, the newsletter explains that "... the short and medium term forecasts indicate that total and subjacent inflation would be within the tolerance range for December 2019 and 2020.

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More on this topic

Honduras: Economic Expectations up to April 2019

May 2019

During the fourth month of the year, GDP growth at the end of 2019 was forecast at 3.6%, and by 2020 the variation is expected to be 3.9%.

From the Central Bank of Honduras report:

According to those surveyed, in April 2019 the year-on-year inflation would reach 4.24% and by the end of the year are expected to be at 4.52% (4.56% in the survey of the previous month).

Honduran Economy Expects to Grow to 3.7% in 2019

March 2019

By 2019, the country's Gross Domestic Product is expected to grow between 3.3% and 3.7%, compared to what was reported in 2018.

The Honduran economy, measured through the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), registered a 3.7% growth in real terms in 2018, driven by the dynamism of consumption and investment of the private sector, as well as by external demand for domestic products, mainly goods for transformation (maquila), so it is expected that in 2019 the behavior will be similar, explains the Central Bank of Honduras (BCH).

Honduras: Economic Expectations for February – 2019

March 2019

During the second month of the year, GDP growth at the end of 2019 was forecast at 3.8%, and by 2020 the variation is expected to be 4.2%.

In February 2019, the Index of Confidence in Economic Activity was 63.5 points (63.1 in the previous month), where 46% is explained by the result of current economic activity and 54% by future activity, explains the Central Bank of Honduras.

Guatemala: Growth Projections Improve

February 2019

The behavior of credit to the private sector, public spending, imports and remittances would explain the higher growth expected for the economy this year.

The Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) reported that this year's economic growth is projected to range between 3% and 3.8%, with a central value of 3.4%, up from the 3.1% reported during 2018.

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