Economic Expectations Improve to February 2020

During February in Honduras, the Economic Activity Confidence Index registered a 15% increase compared to that reported in January 2020.

Friday, March 6, 2020

The informants said that the main macroeconomic variables are within the current Monetary Program, highlighting the strength of the U.S. economy and its effect on Honduras, mainly in attracting family remittances, explains the Central Bank report.

The report states that "... According to the informants consulted, the year-on-year inflation would be at 4.16% in February 2020 and by December this year it would be 4.35% (4.29% in the previous month's survey). For February 2021 (within 12 months), they forecast it will be at 4.41% and at the end of that year at 4.59% (4.53% in the survey of the previous month); results that remain within the tolerance range established in the current Monetary Program (4.0% ± 1.0 percentage point).

Regarding the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the interviewees estimate -on average- a quarterly variation of 1.0% for the first quarter of 2020 and of 1.1% for the second quarter of the current year; expectations higher than those reported in the survey made in January 2020 (0.8% for both periods).

In February 2020, the Economic Activity Confidence Index was 49.6 points (43.2 points in January 2020), where 45.8% is explained by the result of the current economic activity confidence index and 54.2% by future activity (45.2% and 54.8% in the previous month's survey).
"

See full report (in Spanish).

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More on this topic

Business Confidence Still Rising

March 2020

In February 2020, the Index of Confidence in Economic Activity in Guatemala reported a 64% growth compared to the same month last year, reinforcing the upward trend that has been registered since July 2019.

Businessmen forecast an inflationary rhythm of 3.25% for February, 3.36% for March and 3.38% for April 2020. As to December 2020 and 2021, the Panel forecasts an inflationary rhythm of 4.16% and 4.20%, in that order.

Honduras: Low Economic Outlook

July 2019

During June, the Confidence Index of Economic Activity registered a 13% decrease with respect to May, where 49% is due to the result of the current confidence index and 51% to future activity.

From the Central Bank of Honduras report:

In the opinion of the people consulted, in June 2019, the year-on-year inflation would be at 5.12% and for the closing of 2019 it would be 5.03% (4.84% in the survey of the previous month); meanwhile, it is estimated that for June 2020 (within 12 months) it would be at 5.00% and to December of the same year would reach 5.04%.

Honduras: Economic Expectations up to April 2019

May 2019

During the fourth month of the year, GDP growth at the end of 2019 was forecast at 3.6%, and by 2020 the variation is expected to be 3.9%.

From the Central Bank of Honduras report:

According to those surveyed, in April 2019 the year-on-year inflation would reach 4.24% and by the end of the year are expected to be at 4.52% (4.56% in the survey of the previous month).

Honduras: Economic Expectations for February – 2019

March 2019

During the second month of the year, GDP growth at the end of 2019 was forecast at 3.8%, and by 2020 the variation is expected to be 4.2%.

In February 2019, the Index of Confidence in Economic Activity was 63.5 points (63.1 in the previous month), where 46% is explained by the result of current economic activity and 54% by future activity, explains the Central Bank of Honduras.

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