Difficulties for the Guatemalan Economy

The poor performance of the mining sector and the decline in the export price of sugar and coffee could have a negative impact on the outlook for economic growth this year.

Friday, June 29, 2018

According to Bank of Guatemala (Banguat), the recent performance of short-term indicators of economic activity such as the Monthly Index of Economic Activity, imports and family remittances, among other things, they anticipate a performance consistent with the estimate for the end of the year, which ranges between 3% and 3.8%.

However, the president of the Banguat, Sergio Recinos, explained to Elperiodico.com.gt that " ... growth of the Gross Domestic Product expected for 2018 is in the range of 3% and 3.8%, but there are certain downside biases that could be considered in the next revision."

Recinos added that " ... We are going to see the evaluation of the damages caused by the eruption of the Fuego volcano, and depending on the promptness with which it is addressed it could have an effect, in the end, positive on economic growth, because the damages are focused."

See presentation by the Banguat. (In Spanish)

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More on this topic

Guatemala: 2019 Better Than 2018?

December 2018

The Bank of Guatemala expects next year's economic growth to be better than in 2018, which would be caused by higher public spending and the growth of family remittances.

Authorities of the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) informed that the Guatemalan economy will close 2018 with a nearly 3% growth, however, for next year is expected that the increase in GDP will be in the range between 3% and 3.8%.

Economic Growth Revised Downward

July 2018

Due to the eruption of the Volcano of Fire and suspension of the operations of the San Rafael mining company, combined with a drop in the international prices of sugar, coffee and natural rubber, the economy is expected to grow less in 2018.

According to the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat), the projection for economic growth for this year is currently 3.4%, with a range of between 3% and 3.8%. However, due to the events registered throughout the year, it is expected that the growth rate could be reduced to 3%. 

Guatemala: GDP Could Grow Just 3% in 2017

November 2017

Banco de Guatemala plans to close the year with an estimated 3% growth in GDP, and by 2018 it foresees a rebound in economic activity.

A political crisis that seems to have no end, a decline in foreign investment and a slowdown in local economic activity explain most of the meager growth of 3% that Gross Domestic Product could end up registering this year. 

Guatemala: Economic Outlook 2017

December 2016

The Bank of Guatemala has left the monetary policy rate unchanged, citing uncertainty and weakness in the international context, and expects growth of 4.9% in GDP in 2017.

In the domestic environment the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) stressed that economic activity continues to record behavior consistent with the target range for 2016 (between 3.1% and 3.7%), which is reflected in the evolution of several economic activity indicators (Monthly Index of economic activity, bank credit to the private sector in domestic currency, volume of imports and remittances, among other things).

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