Commodity prices, financial crisis, regional inflation

Outlook Report December 2008 from the Executive Secretariat of the Central American Monetary Policy.

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

The disruption of prices in the international market for commodities: petroleum, steel, copper, and basic food, and especially, the recent problems with the US financial system and other countries and regions in the world that are affecting employment and other economic variables, are two of the situations that have significant implications for the region.

The first phenomenon occurred in the second half of 2007 and was reported on in the previous Outlook reports. The second one is hard to measure since there is still not enough information about its magnitude, and hence, the size of its impact. As a result, the level of uncertainty in the forecast for the last quarter of 2008 and the first months of 2009 is greater that that of past reports.

It is estimated that in 2009 the economic rhythm will slowdown. Data from the Monthly Index of Economic Activity for Central American countries as of September 2008 (IMAER), confirms the...

More on this topic

Commodities: Trends in Global Prices in July 2015

July 2015

Reports indicate that for the first time in months, commodities such as cotton, corn and wheat are showing an upward trend, while others such as coffee, sugar and copper have still not recovered.

The downward trend shown by the international price of coffee and other commodities such as sugar, gold and copper, could continue a while longer on the same trajectory, since there are not any factors that would justify a change in the trend, reports Blackbox at, CABI. However, "... They have been on the floor for the last seven years, having reached the bottom during the 2009 crisis, therefore no further declines are expected in general terms, while at the same time there are commodities that have started going into a bull market. "

Prices of Raw Materials Drop

October 2011

As a result of the the contagious effect of the financial crisis in Europe, along with slow U.S. recovery, commodity prices have reversed their upward trend and started to decline.

The IMF's report last September on expectations about the global economic situation indicated a slow recovery for the more advanced economies.

Agricultural Prices in the Coming Years

January 2011

FAO´s outlook for agricultural development during the decade 2010 - 2019 portends higher prices of products and agricultural commodities.

The average crop prices over the next ten years for commodities is projected to be higher than the levels of the past decade, before the 2007 – 2008 peak, both in real and nominal terms (adjusted for inflation).

Commodity prices fall

September 2008

There are many explanations for this: signs of intervention by the CFTC, expectations (or reality) of recession, massive liquidation of funds to neutral positions; it could be that none, or all of them, are valid.

For now it is best to list the components of commodities: soft, grains, energy and metals.

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