Central America Towards 2019

Higher domestic demand and increased investment are the factors that will influence the 3.3% growth forecast for the regional economy next year.

Tuesday, March 20, 2012

According to forecasts by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), in 2019 Panama will be the economy with the highest growth in Central America, with an expected rate of 5.6%.

It would be followed by Honduras, with expected 3.6% GDP growth, Guatemala with 3%, Costa Rica with 2.9% and El Salvador, with an increase of 2.4%. Only in Nicaragua is the economy expected to decline. According to ECLAC, GDP will fall by 2%.

Regarding the global outlook, ECLAC forecasts that the trade conflict between the United States and China will continue, which implies a risk not only for world trade and the growth rate of the global economy in the medium term, but also for the financial conditions, which tend to be linked to the perception of greater or lesser risk by economic agents.

Regarding regional exports, the report details that the foreign sales of Central American countries could be affected by falls in international prices, which would cause a decrease in tax revenues.

In this sense, the Central American Economic Integration Secretariat (Sieca) projects that the volume of Central American exports will grow 0.4% in 2018 and 2.6% in 2019.

See Cepal full report.

More on this topic

Which Economy Will Grow Most This Year?

November 2019

In its latest update of economic growth projections for 2019, ECLAC estimates that the Dominican Republic will close the year with a 5% increase, followed by Panama, which would reach a growth rate of 3.7%.

According to economic growth projections for Latin America, which were estimated by the Economic Commission for Latin America (ECLAC) and updated in November, the Dominican Republic will be the country in the region that will increase its production the most this year.

Nicaragua: Positive Economic Outlook?

October 2019

After having recorded a 4% fall in GDP in 2018, the Central Bank authorities forecast that the Nicaraguan economy will begin to recover in the 2020-2021 period.

Hotels and restaurants, Construction and Commerce, were the sectors that explained most of the -3.8% year-on-year variation of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) during 2018, according to reports from the Central Bank.

Economic Outlook for the New Year

January 2019

Excluding Nicaragua, the economies of Central American countries are projected to increase 2%, however, for the business sector some of the expectations may be too optimistic.

The 5.6% growth estimate for Panama is too optimistic for the private sector, as no major changes are expected compared to 2018.

El Salvador: Economic Outlook for 2017

December 2016

Despite the delicate fiscal context, the Central Bank forecasts GDP growth of between 2.3% and 2.6% for 2017.

In the local context, the Central Bank notes as a potential risk for economic growth the delicate liquidity problem facing the public administration, which is in addition to the structural fiscal deficit, minimizing the potential for growth. On top of his are the high costs incurred both at the public and private level to combat the violence and insecurity affecting the country.

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