Business Confidence Falls 15%

After in May 2019 the Confidence in Economic Activity Index in Guatemala increased 14% in year-on-year terms, in June the fall regarding the previous month was of 15%.

Wednesday, July 10, 2019

The Banco de Guatemala report states that "... The Panel forecasts an inflationary rhythm of 4.45% for June as well as for July and of 4.49% for August 2019. For December 2019 and 2020, the Panel foresees an inflationary rhythm of 4.53% and 4.52%, in that order. In addition, for a horizon of 12 and 24 months (June 2020 and June 2021) the Panel forecasts an inflationary rhythm of 4.40% and of 4.36%, respectively.

The Panel estimates that the Real Gross Domestic Product will register a 3.1% growth in 2019 and 3.2% in 2020. Compared to the May survey, the Panel's forecast did not register variation for both years.

In June 2019, the level of the Confidence Index of Economic Activity1 was at 37.52 points, lower by 20.10% regarding the registered in May 2019 (46.96 points) and lower by 15.27% regarding the registered in June 2018 (44.28 points).
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Strong Rebound in Business Confidence

May 2019

After in March 2019 the Confidence in Economic Activity Index in Guatemala dropped 6% in year-on-year terms, in May the increase was 14% regarding the same month in 2018.

The report of the Banco de Guatemala reviews that "... the inflationary rhythm is forecast at 4.50% for May as well as June and 4.48% for July 2019.

Business Confidence Remains Down in 2019

March 2019

After January 2019 the Confidence in Economic Activity Index in Guatemala reported a 3% y-o-y decrease, in February the variation was of -8% regarding the same month of 2018.

The report of the Bank of Guatemala summarizes that during February "... An inflationary rhythm of 3.96% was forecast for February, 4.09% for March and 4.19% for April 2019.

Economic Expectations Continue to Decline

July 2018

Reinforcing the trend reported since last year, in June 2018, the Confidence Index of Economic Activity in Guatemala fell by 36% compared to the same month in 2017.

In the most recent Economic Expectations Survey conducted by the Banco de Guatemala, an inflationary rhythm of 4.25% for June, 4.24% for July and 4.37% for August 2018 is forecastAs for December 2018 and 2019, the Panel foresees an inflationary rhythm of 4.47% for both years. In addition, for a horizon of 12 and 24 months (June 2019 and June 2020) the Panel forecasts an inflationary rhythm of 4.35% and 4.43%, respectively. 

Economic Expectations in Free Fall

June 2018

In line with the decreasing trend that has been reported since last year, in May 2018, the Confidence Index of Economic Activity in Guatemala fell by 42% compared to the same month in 2017.

According to a survey carried out by Banco de Guatemala, an inflationary rhythm of 4.09% is forecast for May, 4.12% for June and 4.09% for July 2018. Regarding expectations for the end of the year, the consulted businessmen expect December to close with inflation of 4.50%. In addition, for a horizon of 12 and 24 months (May 2019 and May 2020), the Panel forecasts an inflationary rhythm of 4.31% and 4.48%, respectively. 

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